Toronto, February 11, 2026, 07:42 (EST)
- Shopify forecast first-quarter revenue growth in the “low-thirties”% range, topping Street expectations
- Fourth-quarter revenue rose 31% to $3.67 billion; GMV climbed to $123.8 billion
- Board authorized a $2 billion share repurchase program, starting Feb. 17
Shopify forecast first-quarter revenue growth in the low-30% range on Wednesday and said it would start a $2 billion share repurchase program, pushing its U.S.-listed shares up more than 7% in premarket trading.
The outlook matters because investors are still trying to read the consumer: tariffs and higher prices have pinched budgets, but spending has not cracked the way some retailers feared. For Shopify, which lives off merchant sales volumes and subscription fees, demand turns into numbers fast.
There’s another layer. Markets have been jumpy about whether new AI tools make it easier for merchants to ditch big platforms and build their own storefront software. Shopify’s results and guidance land right on that anxiety.
Shopify said fourth-quarter revenue rose 31% to $3.672 billion. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) — the total value of goods sold through its platform — increased to $123.841 billion, while free cash flow, a cash measure after capital spending, came in at $715 million, or a 19% margin.
Merchant solutions revenue was $2.895 billion in the quarter and subscription solutions revenue was $777 million, the company said. President Harley Finkelstein called 2025 “full throttle,” while CFO Jeff Hoffmeister said the company was launching its buyback “from a position of financial and operating strength.” Q4Cdn
For the first quarter, Shopify said it expects revenue to grow at a low-thirties percentage rate, compared with analysts’ average estimate of a 25.2% rise, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The company pointed to steady U.S. consumer spending even as tariffs and cost-of-living pressures hang over the outlook.
Shopify’s stock had already rebounded this week after MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Morton upgraded the shares to buy from neutral and raised his price target to $150 from $122, MarketWatch reported. Morton argued the risk of merchants “vibe coding” their own replacements for Shopify was “effectively nonexistent,” and said the company was positioned to lead in what he called “AI commerce,” pointing to shifting traffic patterns versus Amazon and eBay. Marketwatch
But Shopify’s own outlook also flagged a near-term trade-off. It expects first-quarter free cash flow margin in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below the year-ago quarter, as it keeps spending on its platform and AI-related products.
Shopify said it ended 2025 with $11.556 billion in revenue and $2.007 billion in free cash flow. Management is scheduled to discuss the results on a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
