WASHINGTON, February 11, 2026, 08:40 (EST)
- NFIB optimism index slipped 0.2 point to 99.3 in January; uncertainty index jumped to 91
- Sales expectations improved even as most survey components weakened
- Hiring remained constrained, while taxes and insurance stayed high on owners’ worry lists
U.S. small-business optimism edged down in January, while uncertainty jumped as more owners questioned whether it is a good time to expand, a closely watched survey showed this week. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.2 point to 99.3, while its uncertainty gauge rose seven points to 91.
Small firms account for nearly half of private-sector jobs, and the shift in mood matters because it can show up quickly in hiring and spending. The reading came in below economists’ expectations for no change, with owners again pointing to inflation, labour quality and the cost or availability of insurance as sticking points. (The Wall Street Journal)
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said small firms were still waiting for “noticeable economic growth” even as GDP rises. The group also rolled out a Small Business Employment Index, which compresses several jobs-related questions into a single reading. (NFIB – NFIB Small Business Association)
Even with the dip, the optimism index stayed above its 52-year average of 98. Expected real sales volume rose six points, the only component with a sizeable move, while seven of the 10 components fell.
Sales expectations did improve. NFIB put the net share of owners expecting higher real sales over the next quarter at 16% on a seasonally adjusted basis — “net” meaning the share saying “higher” minus the share saying “lower.”
The labour picture still looked tight. NFIB’s Employment Index slipped to 101.6 in January but remained above its historical average, and 31% of owners reported job openings they could not fill; among those hiring, 88% said they had few or no qualified applicants. Owners were also cautious on expansion, with 15% saying it was a good time to grow, while 18% cited taxes as their single most important problem. (NFIB – NFIB Small Business Association)
Pricing pressure eased a touch, but it did not go away. The net share of owners raising selling prices fell four points to 26%, while plans to raise prices over the next three months climbed to a net 32%.
Credit conditions sent mixed signals. The average rate paid on short-maturity loans rose to 9.1% in January, even as NFIB said the balance of responses on loan rates pointed to a more favourable market for small borrowers.
Capital spending stayed busy, but forward plans softened. Sixty percent of owners reported capital outlays over the past six months, the highest since November 2023, while 18% said they planned capital outlays in the next six months — a historically weak reading.
Supply chain issues still hung around. NFIB said 62% of owners reported disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, even as that share ticked lower from December, and inventory gains reached the highest reading since January 2023.
The move in the headline index was small, keeping the gauge hovering just above its long-run norm. Bloomberg noted the January slip alongside broad declines across the index’s underlying components. (Bloomberg)
ForexFactory, which tracks economic data releases, also highlighted that the optimism gauge stayed above its 52-year average despite the dip. (Forex Factory)
Still, the jump in uncertainty is the weak spot. If the sales pickup owners expect does not show up, hiring and investment plans can stall fast — and price-hike plans remaining well above historical norms keep the risk of renewed inflation pressure in the mix.
