NEW YORK, Feb 11, 2026, 12:35 (ET) — Regular session
- Brent surged close to 2%, hovering around $70 a barrel; U.S. WTI edged up toward $65
- Despite a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories, prices were pushed up by risk concerns in the Middle East
- Traders are turning their attention to the IEA’s market update on Thursday, followed by U.S. inflation figures due Friday
Oil prices climbed nearly 2% Wednesday, boosted by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, though a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. crude stockpiles kept gains in check. Brent crude futures added $1.22, or 1.77%, hitting $70.02 a barrel by 11:47 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.21, or 1.89%, to $65.17. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that prices are supported by tensions “although there has been no supply disruption so far,” while Mizuho’s Robert Yawger pointed out that U.S. production “came back with a vengeance.” 1
The market edged lower after a quiet finish the previous day as traders awaited clearer signals from diplomatic moves, inventory reports, and U.S. economic data. Brent crude dropped 0.3% to close at $68.80 on Tuesday, while WTI slid 0.6% to $63.96, according to Reuters. Gelber & Associates analysts noted that traders remained “hesitant to press either direction” without solid proof that supply disruptions were underway. 2
Washington maintained the risk premium. President Donald Trump mentioned he was weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran approached another round of talks, Reuters reported. Israel’s Channel 12 quoted Trump saying: “Either we reach a deal or we’ll have to do something very tough.” 3
Any tension that puts shipping routes at risk hits crude traders fast. The Strait of Hormuz serves as a vital passage for Middle East exports, and markets usually factor in that risk well before any barrels go missing.
The Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories jumped 8.5 million barrels last week, reaching 428.8 million barrels—well beyond what analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted. Meanwhile, a robust U.S. labor market bolstered confidence that demand might stay steady, despite ongoing debate over how fast supply is ramping up.
OPEC flagged weaker demand for crude across the wider OPEC+ group in Q2, releasing data that suggests a slight surplus if production stays near January levels. They project OPEC+ crude demand will average 42.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter—400,000 bpd less than Q1. The group also noted a softer dollar boosted demand, explaining, “This decline has made dollar-priced commodities, including oil, cheaper for consumers and provided some additional support for global demand.” 4
But the downside risk is clear in the numbers. Rising inventories, steady U.S. output, and expanding global supply could push prices down if tensions in the Middle East ease and crude keeps flowing. The EIA also projects petroleum and other liquids production will outpace global demand, trimming Brent prices to an average of $58 a barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025—dropping further to $53 in 2027 as stockpiles grow. 5
Traders are eyeing Thursday’s International Energy Agency update for clues on whether 2026 will lean toward a surplus or deficit, alongside the upcoming U.S. inventory reports. Friday’s U.S. inflation figures could offer hints about interest rates and fuel demand. Meanwhile, all eyes remain on OPEC+’s March 1 meeting, the next major policy event shaping supply heading into April.
