NEW YORK, February 11, 2026, 17:39 EST
- After posting a 66% jump in fourth-quarter revenue, AppLovin projects first-quarter revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion
- Shares dropped roughly 6% during regular trading following UBS’s decision to lower its price target
- CapitalWatch pulled back on some of its claims; Jefferies maintained its buy rating and $860 price target
AppLovin projected first-quarter revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion Wednesday, following a 66% surge in fourth-quarter revenue to $1.658 billion. Net income hit $1.10 billion, while adjusted EBITDA—a key cash-flow indicator—reached $1.40 billion, the company reported. Despite these gains, shares fell about 6% in regular trading after UBS lowered its price target. 1
The numbers landed in a market already jittery. AppLovin’s stock has swung as much on headlines as on fundamentals, with investors divided over whether its ad performance is sustainable or just surrounded by hype.
This week, the scrutiny has become very real. Short sellers, big-bank analysts, and now earnings reports are all involved, setting a clear baseline between what’s genuine and what’s just noise.
CapitalWatch, known for its sharp critiques, issued a correction and apology over the weekend, retracting certain accusations against a shareholder. “We are formally retracting specific characterizations and allegations contained therein regarding Mr. Tang Hao,” the statement read, noting that the money-laundering claims linked to a January report failed to meet its standards. Despite this, CapitalWatch maintained its overall position and promised a new report. Previously, AppLovin had demanded a retraction, labeling the allegations “defamatory and baseless.” 2
Jefferies went the other direction. The firm stuck with a buy rating and set an $860 price target, calling the recent dip “a great buying opportunity.” It dismissed concerns about CloudX, Meta’s Audience Network, and Google’s “Genie” project as “overblown.” According to Jefferies, CloudX is just another standalone “mediation” tool—software that manages ad requests across networks—and there’s little sign that increased bidding for Apple iOS traffic is hurting results. 3
UBS cut its price target on AppLovin to $686 from $840 but held onto a buy rating, citing robust advertiser budgets and what it described as solid return on ad spend (ROAS) from Axon 2.0. The bank also warned of competitive threats, highlighting Meta’s renewed push into gaming ads and the longer-term risk from Google’s Project Genie. Meanwhile, rival Unity appears to have made only limited progress. 4
AppLovin operates in a fiercely competitive space where major platforms often shift the landscape without warning. The company’s focus is on performance, delivering measurable results for advertisers instead of traditional brand advertising.
The company has been ramping up efforts with e-commerce advertisers, aiming to tap into larger budgets. But this move puts it squarely in competition with Meta and Google, where pricing pressures tend to emerge quickly.
The main risk is straightforward: fresh allegations or tougher scrutiny over compliance and data use could keep the stock swinging wildly. On another front, if major networks push harder for iOS ad space or shift ad routing strategies, AppLovin’s margins might not stay as solid as recent reports indicate.
The latest earnings report hands the bulls some fresh figures to chew on. But the bears aren’t backing down—they still have plenty of concerns. One short seller insists the story isn’t over yet.
