London, Feb 13, 2026, 18:33 GMT — Regular session
Brent crude hovered close to $68 a barrel on Friday, with traders caught between signals of a potential OPEC+ supply hike and softer U.S. inflation numbers, while war-risk fears continued to fade. By 1722 GMT, Brent had inched up 11 cents, or 0.16%, landing at $67.63 after dipping to $66.89 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was unmoved at $62.84. Both benchmarks were on track for a weekly drop after Thursday’s decline. “Looks like inflation is stabilizing,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, though he flagged that any additional OPEC supply could be “the negative.” 1
Talk of supply is picking up speed. Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group is eyeing a restart to oil output hikes as soon as April, with eight members set for a March 1 meeting after putting increases on hold in the first quarter. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak flagged rising seasonal demand: “Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing.” 2
The tide on demand has shifted. The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand growth to hit just 850,000 barrels per day for the year. Looking out to 2026, the group projects supply may still outpace demand by close to 3.73 million bpd — a surplus that amounts to nearly 4% of global consumption, by its estimate. 3
Friday’s U.S. inflation read gave crude another jolt of indecision. The Labor Department reported a 0.2% gain in the January consumer price index, while core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, picked up 0.3%. Edward Jones economist James McCann called it “a noisy report”—not enough, in his view, to move the Federal Reserve off its current path. 4
Traders were still reeling from Thursday’s sharp drop. Brent slid $1.88, or 2.71%, to close at $67.52 a barrel. WTI lost $1.79, or 2.77%, finishing at $62.84, dragged lower by the IEA downgrade and easing geopolitical tensions. “The fact that President Trump continues to negotiate with Iran would lead to a reduction of geopolitical risk,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. 5
Fresh U.S. inventory numbers limited gains. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stockpiles climbed 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million for the week ending Feb. 6. Refineries were operating at 89.4% of capacity.
Politics still in the mix. The Kremlin confirmed that the next Ukraine peace talks are scheduled for next week, while three sources familiar with the discussions said U.S. officials have floated the idea of a three-way meeting Monday and Tuesday in Miami. 6
Venezuela is back in play as a supply source. On Friday, the U.S. handed out two broad licenses, clearing Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell, and Repsol to run oil and gas operations inside the OPEC country. There’s also a separate green light for companies to start hashing out fresh investment deals with PDVSA, though they’ll need additional approvals before moving ahead. It’s the most significant rollback of sanctions since U.S. troops ousted President Nicolas Maduro last month. Treasury says all royalties and taxes must flow into a U.S.-controlled deposit fund. 7
Still, things could shift in a hurry. Should OPEC+ loosen supply into April and demand falter, Brent risks tumbling back near its previous lows. More progress on Iran and Russia talks? That could strip out some of crude’s risk premium. As for Venezuela, don’t count on a smooth climb. “30% growth this year is a bit fantastical,” said David Goldwyn, a former U.S. State Department energy diplomat, pointing straight at the country’s battered infrastructure. 8
Traders are now eyeing the latest U.S. stockpile figures. The EIA has scheduled its Weekly Petroleum Status Report for Thursday, Feb. 19—a delay caused by the U.S. federal government shutdown on Monday, Feb. 16. 9
