Sydney, Feb 15, 2026, 18:09 (AEDT) — The market has closed.
Origin Energy Ltd surged 5% to finish at A$12.08 on Friday, standing out as one of the session’s top blue-chip performers while the S&P/ASX 200 slid 1.39%. Utilities dominated the leaderboard. MarketIndex reported that Jarden bumped Origin up to overweight, setting a new target at A$12.00. Price targets from Citi, Jefferies, and RBC stayed higher, sticking to the low to mid-A$13 range. 1
The action rolls into Monday, with Origin now acting as a sort of live indicator for how investors are pricing retail power margins, rather than just reacting to news flow. Lately, the stock’s moved more like a stand-in for the whole sector, swept up as money shifts toward defensive names.
Another open question: will the post-earnings rerating hold up? Last week’s buying looked like analysts tweaking their models, not so much a wave of momentum, more of a numbers reset.
Earlier this week, Origin lifted its full-year operating earnings outlook for the Energy Markets division to A$1.55 billion–A$1.75 billion, up from its earlier forecast of A$1.40 billion–A$1.70 billion, after stronger-than-anticipated electricity margins boosted first-half results. Underlying profit, adjusted for key one-offs, came in at A$593 million. The integrated gas business, though, saw operating earnings fall more than 31% to A$860 million. New South Wales’ decision to extend the Eraring coal plant’s life through 2029 “gives Origin more certainty and stability,” according to David Tuckwell, chief investment officer at ETF Shares. 2
On the earnings call, CEO Frank Calabria told analysts electricity earnings came in above the company’s A$25–A$40 per megawatt hour range for the half, and he expects that pace to hold through FY26. (A megawatt hour is a standard electricity measure.) Calabria also flagged a recent slide in wholesale power prices, even as battery activity has picked up. 3
The dividend schedule is in play, too. Origin will pay an interim dividend of A$0.30 per share, with the stock going ex-dividend on March 2. Anyone holding shares by March 3 qualifies for the payment, which is set for March 27. It’s fully franked, meaning investors pick up the Australian tax credits as well. 4
But here’s the hitch: LNG-linked earnings swing around with both production and the market. If retail margins narrow, or regulators turn up the heat, this guidance bump could easily lose its footing as a reliable baseline.
Markets have sat idle since Friday’s rally. The first real pulse comes Monday, when trading kicks back in. Then it’s over to fresh broker notes or company updates—basically, whatever could rattle FY26 guidance next.
