Sydney, Feb 15, 2026, 18:09 (AEDT) — Market closed
Origin Energy Ltd closed out Friday with a 5% jump to A$12.08, bucking the broader S&P/ASX 200’s 1.39% drop and landing among the day’s blue-chip winners. Utilities took the lead. According to MarketIndex, Jarden upgraded Origin to overweight, nudging its target to A$12.00. Citi, Jefferies, and RBC, meanwhile, left their price targets parked in the low-to-mid A$13 range. (Market Index)
This spills into Monday, with Origin serving as a real-time gauge for how the market’s valuing retail power margins—not just chasing the next headline. The shares have been trading like a sector proxy lately, caught up in the wider drift into defensives.
There’s also a question of how durable the post-earnings rerating proves to be. Much of last week’s buying had the flavor of analysts resetting their models—less a rush of momentum, more a recalibration.
Origin bumped up its full-year operating earnings guidance for the Energy Markets arm earlier this week, now expecting A$1.55 billion to A$1.75 billion instead of the previous A$1.40 billion to A$1.70 billion range, after electricity margins delivered a better-than-expected first half. Stripping out major one-offs, underlying profit reached A$593 million. But operating earnings at the integrated gas division dropped over 31%, landing at A$860 million. New South Wales’ move to keep the Eraring coal plant running through 2029 “gives Origin more certainty and stability,” said David Tuckwell, chief investment officer at ETF Shares. (Reuters)
During the earnings call, chief executive Frank Calabria told analysts that electricity earnings topped the company’s A$25–A$40 per megawatt hour target for the half, and he’s expecting they’ll stay above that level through FY26. (A megawatt hour is a standard unit of electricity.) He pointed out there’s been a recent dip in wholesale power prices, despite increased battery activity. (Investing)
The dividend calendar is another factor on the table. Origin is set to pay out an interim dividend of A$0.30 per share, with shares going ex-dividend on March 2, while investors on record by March 3 will see payments land March 27. The dividend comes fully franked, giving holders the benefit of Australian tax credits. (MarketScreener)
There’s a catch, though. LNG-tied profits rise and fall with output and market prices, and if retail margins start to slip—or if regulators step up—then treating this guidance boost as the new normal gets shaky.
The market’s been closed all weekend, so the immediate test is whether Friday’s rally sticks once trading resumes Monday. After that, attention shifts to possible broker updates and new company disclosures—anything capable of shaking up FY26 guidance.
