Antofagasta shares slip into results week as copper’s “scarcity” story gets tested

Antofagasta shares slip into results week as copper’s “scarcity” story gets tested

February 15, 2026

London, Feb 15, 2026, 15:01 GMT — Market shut for the day.

  • Antofagasta slipped 0.5% to close at 3,711 pence in London on Friday.
  • Copper hovered close to $12,900 a tonne late last week, with investors weighing up signals from both demand and inventories.
  • UK miners start what’s set to be a packed reporting week, with full-year results slated for Tuesday.

Antofagasta ended Friday at 3,711 pence, slipping 0.48%. The stock picks up trading again Monday after the weekend pause.

The copper miner, trading in London, is set to release its full-year earnings on Feb. 17. It’s one of several big UK mining names reporting this week, with investors scrutinizing production numbers, costs, and capex plans.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hovered near $12,883 a metric ton late last week, steadier after its earlier surge this year. Things calmed down as China moved into the Lunar New Year holiday.

The inventory picture tells a different story. Combined copper stocks on the CME, LME, and Shanghai Futures Exchange just topped 1.1 million tons—a level not seen since 2003. That surge is chipping away at talk of a copper “shortage” that’s been circulating among traders. Reuters

The copper concentrate market isn’t sitting still. Treatment and refining charges—what miners hand over to smelters for processing—have come under strain lately. Antofagasta, for example, settled on $0 terms with certain Chinese smelters during December talks, according to a recent Reuters analysis. “Acid is supposed to be a byproduct, not the main profit centre. That creates risk,” said CRU analyst Peter Harrison, noting smelters’ increasing reliance on sulphuric acid sales as margins from actual copper processing have thinned. Reuters

Lower TC/RCs give miners like Antofagasta a bit of a boost, trimming processing costs. But for the industry, there’s another message: smelters claim concentrate is hard to find, yet refined copper keeps stacking up in exchange warehouses.

Investors will be watching for clues in management’s comments—demand, pricing, and how quickly sales are moving into Asia, a region where holiday breaks often sap short-term buying.

Attention is likely to settle on costs, too. Copper may be high, but shifts in unit expenses, project delivery, or capital restraint can jolt the stock as soon as the results drop.

There’s danger in the opposite direction. Should inventories keep climbing and post-holiday demand remain lackluster, copper prices could slip—and miners’ earnings projections might get slashed quickly, no matter what’s happening with processing charges.

Artur Ślesik

Artur Ślesik is a technology and financial markets journalist at Bez-kabli.pl, covering artificial intelligence, semiconductors, technology stocks and emerging innovations. A graduate of Warsaw University of Technology, he combines a technical background with market analysis to explain how new technologies are shaping industries, businesses and investment trends worldwide.

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