New York, Feb 19, 2026, 15:32 (EST) — Regular session
- UNH shares edge higher in afternoon trade, defying a weaker U.S. market.
- New research points to mandatory Medicare Advantage plan changes coming in 2026
- Washington’s wrangling over 2027 Medicare Advantage payments isn’t far from investors’ minds.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) traded at $289.57, up 0.5% Thursday afternoon. The stock shifted between $286.90 and $290.48 during the session, with roughly 3.1 million shares traded.
UnitedHealth’s slight uptick is notable—investors now see the company as the sector’s litmus test for Medicare Advantage. In this space, private insurers operate Medicare plans for seniors, collecting a fixed payment per enrollee.
Some insurers are dialing back their participation in the program for 2026, citing squeezed margins from medical costs and reimbursement trends. Investors are left trying to figure out just how deep the retreat will run.
Nearly 3 million people on Medicare Advantage — roughly 10% of all enrollees — will need to switch to different coverage in 2026, as insurers pull out of certain areas and reduce plan choices, according to a study out Wednesday. Disruptions hit rural members especially hard, with rates twice as high as for those in cities. UnitedHealthcare was responsible for close to 14% of those mandatory switches. RAND’s Hannah James, the study’s author, pointed out that “policymakers should consider whether the current program design adequately aligns plan incentives with beneficiary needs.” 1
Health insurers took separate paths. Humana added 2.2%, Elevance ticked up 0.5%. CVS dropped 0.6%. The S&P 500 proxy SPY lost roughly 0.5%.
UnitedHealth, parent of both UnitedHealthcare and Optum, projected 2026 revenue topping $439 billion and said it expects adjusted earnings to clear $17.75 a share. CEO Stephen Hemsley, addressing investors, said the company “confronted challenges directly” and came out of 2025 “a much stronger company.” 2
The road ahead looks anything but smooth. Medical-cost pressure tends to stick around, and even small policy changes to Medicare Advantage payments can swiftly hit benefits, networks, or what plans are available—the exact tools insurers reach for when margins start to feel the squeeze.
Cyber risk is again front and center for UnitedHealth’s Change Healthcare unit. Charlee Hess, a senior cybersecurity official at HHS, warned that the 2024 hack “threatened the liquidity of our entire health care system.” The department is stepping up efforts to map out risks tied to third-party vendors, after the breach compromised data on 190 million people, according to CyberScoop. 3
Traders have their eyes on the Medicare Advantage rate schedule next. CMS is floating a net average hike of just 0.09% for 2027 payments. The comment window closes Feb. 25, and the final numbers are expected no later than April 6. 4
