New York, Feb 25, 2026, 06:37 (EST) — Premarket
Nvidia shares edged up about 0.5% in early premarket trading on Wednesday as investors waited for the AI chipmaker’s quarterly report due after the U.S. market close, with stock index futures slightly higher after a volatile stretch for big tech. Investors are looking for proof that profits can keep up with a $630 billion capital spending push by the largest tech companies this year. (Reuters)
The backdrop is uneasy. The S&P 500 technology sector is down 3.5% so far this year, while software has taken much of the hit and semiconductors have held up better, a split that has made Nvidia’s numbers feel like a market event rather than a single-company report. “Nvidia’s earnings matter because they are kind of the linchpin of the Mag Seven,” Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said. (Reuters)
Derivatives traders are not buying the idea of fireworks. Options prices imply a move of about 5.6% in either direction on Thursday — the day after results — the smallest expected post-earnings swing ahead of any Nvidia report in at least three years, according to ORATS data. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, called the low “event pricing” unusual, while Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, said strong results may already be “baked in,” pointing to a “muted reaction.” (Reuters)
Competition chatter has also been in the mix ahead of the report. Rival Advanced Micro Devices said on Tuesday it agreed to sell up to $60 billion worth of AI chips to Meta Platforms over five years, and Nvidia shares were down about 1% at the time. “Meta is locking in supply, diversifying away from a single vendor,” Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said. (Reuters)
Nvidia closed up 0.9% at $192.85 on Tuesday, giving the company a market value of about $4.53 trillion, according to LSEG data.
Investors will focus on Nvidia’s forecast and management’s take on demand from the biggest buyers of AI computing, as markets argue over whether the spending boom is translating into durable earnings growth. A calm options market can also be a tell: it often signals that investors think expectations, positioning and estimates have tightened, leaving less room for surprise.
But policy risk is still sitting on the desk. A U.S. Commerce Department official told a House hearing on Tuesday that none of Nvidia’s H200 chips — described as its second-most advanced AI chip — have been sold to Chinese customers so far, and said chip smuggling into China is an active enforcement priority. Nvidia did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
Nvidia has said it will host a conference call on Wednesday to discuss fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results, with written CFO commentary released ahead of the call. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
For traders, the setup is straightforward even if the outcome is not: Nvidia has become a proxy for the AI trade and for the market’s tolerance of mega-cap valuations. A modest beat may not be enough if guidance fails to raise the ceiling, while any hint of slowing demand could land harder given how much of the year’s debate has centered on returns from AI spending.
The next catalyst is Nvidia’s earnings release after the close and its scheduled webcast at 2:00 p.m. PT, with the first clean read on sentiment coming in after-hours trade and then Thursday’s cash session. (Nvidia)
