New York, February 26, 2026, 05:09 EST — Premarket
- Trade Desk shares slumped in premarket trading after the company issued a weaker outlook for the first quarter.
- Management pointed to choppy ad spending trends, particularly in consumer packaged goods and autos.
- Analysts are trimming targets, keeping an eye out for any sign that budgets might steady.
The Trade Desk (TTD) slid 17.1% to $20.87 before the bell Thursday, deepening losses sparked by its newest earnings and guidance. Shares had closed at $25.16 Wednesday. (StockAnalysis)
This move is significant: Trade Desk runs a demand-side platform (DSP), software that lets advertisers automate programmatic ad buying. Investors have often used Trade Desk as a proxy for “open internet” ad spending trends. Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese flagged the squeeze from larger rivals, writing, “Competitor platforms that integrate content, data and commerce into a single environment incentivize ad buyers to remain within that ecosystem.” Giants like Amazon and Google loom large here. Trade Desk shares have tumbled roughly 66% over the past 12 months, as of Wednesday’s close. (MarketWatch)
Trade Desk is projecting first-quarter revenue of at least $678 million, falling short of the $689.2 million consensus from LSEG’s analyst data. Of 39 brokerages tracked, 20 have a “buy” or better on the shares, 15 say “hold,” and four recommend “sell”; the median price target stands at $41, according to LSEG. The shares have dropped 33.71% for the year through Wednesday’s close. (Longbridge SG)
The company turned in $847 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, with net income landing at $187 million, or $0.39 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA — which excludes things like stock-based compensation — came in at $400 million. For 2025, revenue reached $2.896 billion and adjusted EBITDA hit $1.196 billion. The board greenlit an additional $350 million for share buybacks, bringing the total remaining under the repurchase program to $500 million, following $423 million in buybacks for the quarter and roughly $1.4 billion through 2025. (SEC)
CEO Jeff Green called out weaker ad spend from consumer packaged goods and auto brands on the earnings call, blaming what he described as a sharp uptick in uncertainty. “In these two categories, all global companies have levels of uncertainty that we haven’t seen for most of the last 15 years,” Green told analysts. (Investing)
Loop Capital has pulled its rating on Trade Desk down to “hold” from “buy” and slashed the price target to $25, down from $75. Analysts pointed to weaker advertiser demand and company guidance suggesting about five percentage points of year-over-year margin squeeze. The firm noted that consumer packaged goods and auto make up over a quarter of Trade Desk’s bookings, and estimated growth could have been at least five points stronger if not for the slump in those categories. (Investing)
Still, that forecast may miss the mark if brands continue to rein in spending, or if the late-quarter turbulence flagged by management spills over into sectors beyond just those main two. There’s also competition risk: bigger platforms leveraging their data and commerce ecosystems to trap ad dollars within their own networks remains an ongoing concern.
All eyes shift to the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. EST to see if the premarket drop sticks, while Wall Street analysts scramble to update targets and ratings in the wake of the call. What happens next? The first hour of trading, and the question of whether dip buyers step in, will set the tone.
