New York, Feb 26, 2026, 10:59 EST — Regular session
- Circle Internet Group climbed roughly 7%, hitting $89.01, up from Wednesday’s close at $83.15. 1
- USDC wrapped up 2025 with $75.3 billion in circulation. Circle recorded $770 million in revenue and reserve income for Q4. 2
- Focus is turning to 2026 targets for margins and expenses, along with updates on the Arc blockchain and payments efforts at Circle. 2
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) climbed nearly 7% to $89.01 late Thursday morning, building on a two-day surge for the stablecoin company. Earlier, the stock touched $90.00. 1
This all lands at a time when stablecoins—those crypto tokens engineered to keep a steady $1 value—are picking up steam again. U.S. regulators are setting clearer ground rules, and traders want new “cash-like” vehicles within the digital asset world. Circle’s USDC, for its part, maintains its dollar peg with reserves in cash and other low-risk holdings. That setup has pushed USDC’s growth back into focus. 3
Regulation figures into the story. According to Reuters, USDC’s traction got a boost from the GENIUS Act, a law laying out federal ground rules for dollar-backed stablecoins. Circle, though, still feels every move from the Federal Reserve—its profits hinge on returns from reserves stashed in deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries. 3
USDC is gaining ground quickly, Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell noted, highlighting better profitability as adoption grows. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire pointed out that declining rates might actually be “welcome” if they help boost money velocity and drive more circulation, even as yields dip. 3
Circle reported that USDC in circulation jumped 72% to $75.3 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31. Total revenue and reserve income climbed 77% to $770 million. Net income from continuing operations landed at $133 million, while adjusted EBITDA — that’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, plus some adjustments — came in at $167 million. 2
Reserve income remains Circle’s primary driver. The company logged $733 million in reserve income, though the reserve return rate slid to 3.8%, a drop of 68 basis points (0.68 percentage point). Distribution, transaction, and other expenses climbed to $461 million. That pushed the revenue-less-distribution-cost (RLDC) margin to 40%—the cut left after covering distribution and transaction outlays. 2
Circle wants “other revenue” to pull more weight. Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Fox-Geen pegged the figure at $36.8 million for the quarter—split between roughly $25 million from subscription and services and $12 million from transactions. 4
Now, traders are turning their attention to management’s 2026 outlook. Circle stuck with its multi-year projection for USDC, calling for about 40% annual growth “through cycle.” The company is also pointing to 2026 “other revenue” between $150 million and $170 million, with an RLDC margin coming in at 38% to 40%, and adjusted operating expenses projected at $570 million to $585 million. 2
Circle highlighted fresh connections in payments and finance. Visa announced that U.S. issuers and acquirers now have the option to settle with Visa using USDC. Intuit, meanwhile, entered a multi-year deal to weave USDC and associated infrastructure throughout its platform. Circle also mentioned collaborations with Polymarket, plus Bermuda’s onchain economy initiative. 2
Circle pushed further into infrastructure, reporting that Arc’s public testnet has topped 100 participants. Mainnet? Still expected sometime this year. As of Feb. 20, Circle Payments Network counted 55 financial institutions signed up, with another 74 under eligibility review, according to the company. 2
Circle disclosed that in December it landed conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to set up a national trust bank. “The fourth quarter marked another step forward in Circle’s mission,” Allaire said in the release. 2
Even so, the strong quarterly profit didn’t translate for the full year. Circle ended up with a net loss from continuing operations of $70 million for the year, blaming much of that on $424 million in stock-based compensation expenses triggered by IPO-related vesting. Full-year adjusted EBITDA, though, increased to $582 million. 2
Wall Street price targets are heading south. Needham’s John Todaro kept his buy call Thursday, yet slashed his target to $130 from $190. Canaccord Genuity, in a separate note, trimmed its target to $160 from $247—buy rating stays. 5
The model isn’t without its vulnerabilities. Circle has cautioned that episodes of shaken confidence or sudden “systemic shocks” might spark a rush of redemptions or even delays. Other red flags: fiercer competition, volatile interest rates, and potential pitfalls tied to Arc—Circle specifically notes Arc “may not be successful.” 6
The immediate focus turns to USDC’s circulation as rate forecasts move, and Circle’s ability to keep its 2026 RLDC margin in the 38%-40% band while pushing payment and blockchain infrastructure growth. TradingView’s earnings calendar points to Circle’s next report landing June 3. 7
