New York, February 27, 2026, 11:16 (EST) — Regular session
- Circle shares slipped on Friday, paring back some of the surge that followed its recent earnings report.
- USDC’s rebound and the income Circle draws from its reserves grabbed attention in the stablecoin issuer’s most recent quarter.
- Circle’s model hinges on next week’s U.S. jobs numbers and the March inflation readout—both crucial for how the market recalibrates rate bets.
Circle Internet Group slipped 3.4% to $84.32 late Friday morning, losing ground from Thursday’s $87.25 close. Over the past year, shares have swung from as low as $49.90 up to $298.99. 1
This shift is important: Circle’s equity has turned into a live bet on two fronts — USDC’s growth rate and the destination for U.S. interest rates. Both factors are shifting on the fly, occasionally swinging in the space of an hour.
Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, made its NYSE debut in June 2025. Shares of CRCL started trading at $31 after the firm priced its upsized IPO. 2
Circle’s latest quarterly update kicked off this week’s rally, spotlighting booming USDC demand and hefty reserve income. Circulation for USDC shot up 72% to $75.3 billion. Revenue—reserve income included—climbed 77% to $770 million, beating the $739 million consensus from LSEG data. “USDC continues scaling rapidly,” said Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell. CEO Jeremy Allaire, for his part, welcomed the prospect of more rate cuts this year, tying them to momentum from the GENIUS Act, recent Visa and Polymarket collaborations, and a trust bank charter application—all aimed at broadening stablecoin adoption. 3
Some operating metrics got a closer look, since they tie directly to Circle’s revenue. According to a Nasdaq.com piece by Zacks, USDC in circulation finished the quarter at $75.3 billion, just under the $76.4 billion consensus. Reserve income, meanwhile, landed at $733.4 million, beating the analyst average of $723.5 million. “Other revenue” reached $36.84 million, well ahead of the $25.14 million estimate cited in the article. 4
On Friday, rates snapped back into focus as the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 0.5% in January, surprising economists who were looking for a 0.3% increase. The PPI, tracking wholesale price shifts, came in hotter than expected, prompting investors to reassess when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. 5
Circle’s arrangement is a double-edged sword, fueling that underlying tension. On one hand, lower rates might boost “money velocity” and drive up adoption. On the other, those same lower rates eat into the yield Circle collects on cash and short-term Treasuries backing USDC. Growth could also take a hit if the U.S. rewrites the rules, or if rivals like Tether’s USDT step up the pressure.
Investors are eyeing what unfolds once the earnings buzz quiets down and the stock moves off the front page. The next indicator: if USDC issuance stays steady, and if Circle manages to grow outside its main stablecoin—pushing into services less tied to interest rates.
Macro events are up next. Watch for the Labor Department’s February jobs report, coming March 6, and the government’s PCE price index—the Fed’s go-to inflation measure—set for March 13. 6
