London, Feb 27, 2026, 18:25 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent crude futures climbed roughly 3% during afternoon hours, trading close to highs not seen in months.
- With U.S.-Iran nuclear talks bumped to next week, traders started factoring in a higher risk to Middle East supply.
- Next up: OPEC+ meets March 1 to decide April output, with Vienna technical talks on tap right after.
Brent crude futures climbed roughly 3% Friday, with traders pricing in renewed risk to Middle East supplies after the U.S. and Iran prolonged nuclear negotiations.
At 1422 GMT, Brent climbed $2.09 to reach $72.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate moved up $2.33, hitting $67.54. Both contracts were sitting at their highest levels in months.
Here’s the crux: negotiations are ongoing, rhetoric from military officials is escalating, and the world’s key oil chokepoint is right in the crosshairs. That so-called “risk premium” — extra dollars tacked on by traders wary of supply disruptions — is swelling quickly, analysts point out. Reuters
“Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM, referencing the talks and possible U.S. military action. Reuters
No deal came out of the Geneva round, but the Omani mediator pointed to progress, with technical talks now set for Vienna next week. Oil bounced on the developments, leaving traders to react to headlines right up to the weekend.
DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar noted there’s “some hope” for a peaceful resolution from the latest talks, though he cautioned that military action remains a possibility. Reuters
Geography is driving the risk higher. Sarkar put the geopolitical premium at $8 to $10 a barrel, pointing to worries over supply interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil moves through that narrow waterway.
Signs of supply-side maneuvering are coming into view. Reuters flagged plans by Abu Dhabi to ramp up Murban crude exports in April, and Saudi Arabia is weighing price hikes for Asian buyers next month as Indian demand ticks higher and refineries scout for alternatives to Russian supply.
Not much relief for oil bulls on the inventory front. U.S. crude supplies jumped by 16 million barrels last week—well above the 1.5 million build forecast in a Reuters poll. Still, traders mostly shrugged, with geopolitics stealing the spotlight.
“A bearish (EIA) report with a large crude build… the prices impact was however limited,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, pointing to Middle East tensions as the main force in play. Reuters
There’s a catch: those headlines that helped push Brent higher could just as easily send it down again. If the outlook for a deal gets any clearer, that risk premium could evaporate fast. On top of that, producers might turn the taps back on—OPEC+ is seen weighing a 137,000 barrel-per-day boost for April at its March 1 gathering, after holding off on new supply in the first quarter.
Looking past the weekend, traders are eyeing OPEC+ set for March 1, with Vienna technical talks lined up the following week. Analysts still peg Brent at an average of $63.85 per barrel for 2026, but they caution that expected surplus later this year may limit price spikes once the geopolitical drag recedes.
