Singapore, Feb 28, 2026, 02:38 SGT — Market closed.
- China’s lithium carbonate futures jumped after Zimbabwe halted exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates.
- Lithium-linked shares rallied across China, Australia and the U.S., as traders priced in tighter supply.
- Investors are watching for Zimbabwe’s next guidance on export permits and for China futures to reopen on March 2.
Lithium prices in China surged this week after Zimbabwe suddenly suspended exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, a move that rattled battery-metal markets and sent lithium stocks higher across several regions.
The timing matters. Zimbabwe has become a meaningful supplier of spodumene concentrate — a lithium-bearing ore used to make battery chemicals — and China relies heavily on imported feedstock to produce lithium carbonate and hydroxide.
Traders also came into the news leaning the same way. Lithium had already been recovering on expectations that grid-scale energy storage demand will soak up more material, even as EV demand stayed uneven in some markets.
On Thursday, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan ($26,043) a metric ton by 0330 GMT, after spiking more than 9% to 187,700 earlier in the session. Zimbabwe shipped 1.128 million tons of spodumene concentrate in 2025, mostly to China, and the surprise export suspension fed immediate worries about raw-material availability. 1
Lithium producers’ shares moved with the tape. Tianqi Lithium climbed as much as 7.3% in Hong Kong and Ganfeng gained 5.6%, while Australia’s PLS Group rose as much as 7.6% and Mineral Resources as much as 6%; in the U.S., Sigma Lithium closed 30% higher and Albemarle added 10%. CRU Group analyst Cameron Hughes said “the higher lithium price and continuous illegal shipments” likely helped trigger the overhaul, while Jefferies said in a note the market could tighten temporarily after the Zimbabwean order. 2
In the latest corporate response, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group said it has started building a lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe, part of the government’s push to shift exports toward higher-value processed material. Yahua told investors it expects permission within two weeks to resume shipments, according to the report. 3
Not every company read the policy shock the same way. Several China-listed miners with Zimbabwe exposure told local media the impact may be limited, arguing that compliant producers can apply for export permits with extra documentation; Yahua said it had already shipped out concentrate, while Sinomine said exports were on hold pending clarification. Shares of Yahua, Sinomine and Huayou Cobalt fell on the day, underscoring how quickly sentiment can swing from “supply squeeze” to “policy exception.” 4
There is a clear risk for bulls: the rally fades if Zimbabwe spells out a permit system that quickly restarts flows for large miners, or if China’s futures market cools down once the first burst of headline buying passes. A lot depends on the paperwork and enforcement, not just the announcement.
For now, the policy thrust is straightforward. Lithium sulfate is an intermediate chemical that can be refined into battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide; moving up that chain takes time and capital, and any gap between export restrictions and new processing capacity can tighten the market.
The next concrete test comes when trading resumes after the weekend. Investors will be watching for follow-up notices from Zimbabwe’s mines ministry and for China’s lithium carbonate futures to reopen on Monday, March 2.
