Sao Paulo, Feb 28, 2026, 03:51 BRT — Market closed
- Ibovespa dropped 0.92% for the week ended Feb. 27, closing out Friday down 1.16% at 188,786.98 points.
- Foreign money pushed the market to a record close midweek. Sentiment soured later, though, after the IPCA-15 inflation number came in above expectations.
- Brazil’s Q4 GDP drops March 3, just before Copom’s rate call set for March 17–18
After hitting new records, Brazil’s Ibovespa snapped its winning streak, slipping 0.92% for the week ended Feb. 27—the first weekly loss of 2026. On Friday, the index dropped 1.16% to 188,786.98 points. Still, February wrapped up with a 4.09% gain.
The retreat stands out, given so much of February’s momentum depended on overseas cash and bets on lower rates, not just individual stock moves. Foreign investors poured in a net 15.267 billion reais through Feb. 25, according to exchange figures, a surge that helped send the Ibovespa to a record 191,490.4 points close on Feb. 24.
Inflation numbers landed next. Brazil’s IPCA-15, which tracks mid-month prices, jumped 0.84% for February—comfortably above the 0.57% median estimate in a Reuters survey. That pushes the annual rate up to 4.1% and adds fresh uncertainty about how quickly the central bank might deliver more rate cuts. “As things stand, we continue to expect a 50bp cut, but the risks to this view have grown,” Capital Economics economist Kimberley Sperrfechter wrote. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Andres Abadia, though, still called the disinflation trend “broadly intact.” Reuters
Losses were led by the heavyweights on B3 this Friday. Vale dipped 0.83%, Petrobras was down 0.71%, and most of the major banks finished in the red—though Bradesco managed a 0.81% gain. PRIO, the oil producer, surged 4.11% to 54.49 reais. On the flip side, Cosan dropped 5.27% to 6.29 reais and Natura slid 5.20% to 9.11 reais. Turnover for the session reached 35.7 billion reais. The dollar barely budged, ending close to 5.13. Bruno Shahini of Nomad flagged the “carry” trade—returns from sticking with a higher-yielding currency—as a key factor lending support to the real. Bora Investir
Earnings results made themselves heard. Exchange operator B3 posted 2025 revenue of 11.1 billion reais, a 5% rise over 2024. Recurring net profit came in 10% higher at 5.3 billion reais. CFO André Veiga Milanez pointed to “discipline,” even as the macro picture remained “challenging.” B3
The next move, though, hinges on inflation behaving as investors hope—slowing down, and quickly. If prices or activity jump again, local yields could climb, foreign demand might waver, and rate-sensitive stocks—already buoyed by dreams of easier policy—would feel the heat.
Plenty hitting the tape right off the bat. Fourth-quarter GDP from IBGE lands March 3, then producer prices roll in March 4. January unemployment comes the next day, March 5, and industrial output is set for March 6. February IPCA inflation figures drop March 12.
Next up: Brazil’s central bank holds its Copom meeting on March 17–18. That’s when officials set the Selic benchmark rate. Markets will be watching both the magnitude of any initial cut and signals on future moves.
Monday’s open brings back the same question traders faced Friday: was that pause just a break following fresh highs, or are tougher days ahead? The first real signal comes Tuesday, when GDP data hits.
