Sydney, March 2, 2026, 17:00 AEDT — After-hours
Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) slid 6.4% on Monday to A$199.86, taking A$13.62 off the stock in one session. 1
The move came as oil surged and shares slid across Asia after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran revived fears of supply disruption and a fresh inflation flare-up. Brent jumped 6.4% to $77.57 a barrel and safe-haven gold rose 1.6% to $5,360 an ounce. “Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 2
Investors are still trying to judge whether the war stays contained or bleeds into trade, rates and growth. “Middle East tail risks have increased,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments. Barclays analysts said markets could be underpricing the chance that containment fails. 3
In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 financials index was down as much as 3.1% early and sat 2.5% lower by mid-morning, with Macquarie off 6.8% at A$199.02 at one point. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and National Australia Bank were down between about 2% and 3.4% in the same window. 4
The broader S&P/ASX 200 finished up 0.03%, as gains in energy, gold and resources helped offset the bank slide. 5
Macquarie did not lodge any announcements with the ASX on Monday, leaving the stock to trade with macro headlines and sector rotation. 6
The firm’s most recent trading update, on Feb. 10, said “trading conditions were satisfactory” in the third quarter and flagged that “significant volatility events” and geopolitics can sway its short-term outlook. It also said Macquarie Asset Management’s profit contribution was lifted by a gain on the divestment of its North American and European public investments business. 7
Oil remains the pressure point. Brent hit $82.37 in early trade and Iran said it had closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for crude and liquefied gas, prompting refiners and governments to assess stockpiles. “With the retaliatory action now evolving to attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the threat on oil supplies has substantially risen,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes wrote. 8
But the direction for Macquarie stock is not one-way. If oil keeps climbing and the conflict drags on, traders will start to price weaker growth and fewer capital markets deals — a mix that can hit earnings. A quick de-escalation could unwind some of the fear premium just as fast.
On the domestic calendar, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets March 16–17, with the decision due at 2:30 p.m. on the second day. Any shift in the rate outlook would feed into bank valuations and funding costs. 9
The next Macquarie-specific catalyst is its full-year result on May 8; the stock is expected to trade ex-dividend on May 18, meaning buyers after that date miss the next payout. 10
