New York, March 2, 2026, 12:06 (ET) — Regular session
- JPMorgan shares dropped roughly 1%, with investors reacting to increased oil prices and renewed geopolitical risk.
- JPMorgan and Citi have asked certain employees in the Middle East to work remotely, responding to heightened tensions in the region.
- Focus shifts to U.S. numbers this week, with the spotlight on Friday’s jobs report.
JPMorgan Chase & Co dropped roughly 1% to $297.19 by late Monday morning, with the stock following the broader market lower after a jump in oil prices stirred fresh inflation concerns. 1
Stocks slumped across the board, leaving the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The VIX shot up to its highest level in three months as traders piled into havens. Oil surged over 8%, rattled by worries that the Middle East conflict might persist and disrupt trade routes. 2
Big banks face a tricky equation right now: on one hand, climbing energy prices are making it harder for rate-cut trades to find traction. On the other, those same costs bump up the risk of weaker growth and rougher credit conditions. Lately, credit market stress has edged higher. Traders are eyeing whether those wider spreads start to hit bank funding costs or dent their willingness to lend. 3
JPMorgan and Citigroup have asked staff in the Middle East to stay home as regional tensions rise, according to two sources who spoke with Reuters. Both banks said operations remain unaffected, and contingency plans are set. 4
JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva and her team, in a flash note sent late Sunday, admitted their base case didn’t expect a disruption of this scale in the Strait of Hormuz. “That assumption failed,” they said. Brent crude now looks set to “gap higher” into the $80-$85 a barrel zone, they warned, and if the situation drags on for over three weeks, prices could easily jump to the $100-$120 range. 5
Pessimism set in before trading even started. “The market is taking it relatively well,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. But Ohsung Kwon at Wells Fargo warned the S&P 500 could tumble if crude tops $100. Traders focused on upcoming U.S. manufacturing data expected later Monday and this week’s labor numbers. 6
Bank investors keep chewing on a familiar equation: higher yields push up net interest income—the gap between loan earnings and deposit costs—but any slowdown tends to hit quickly, surfacing in credit card and corporate default rates.
JPMorgan is deeply embedded in global dealmaking and trading. If disruption drags on—freezing travel, holding up capital markets activity, or rattling clients—the first signs usually hit advisory pipelines, with fee income feeling the impact soon after.
But there’s risk on the flip side, too. A rapid pullback in oil, combined with signs of easing conflict, could flip sentiment fast. That “sell first” mentality might vanish, letting bank stocks rebound sharply—earnings aren’t due for months, and buyback hopes are never far off.
The next major hurdle: Friday’s U.S. employment report. The Labor Department will drop its February jobs numbers on March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET—a data point that tends to shake up Fed policy forecasts. 7
Looking ahead, the Fed’s policy meeting is set for March 17-18. If energy prices start to feed through to inflation and nudge the Fed’s stance, that could stir up the rate argument once again—and with it, bank shares. 8
