New York, March 2, 2026, 16:15 EST — After-hours
- Microsoft added 1.4% by the close, while Wall Street ended the session with barely any change overall.
- Oil surged as weekend U.S.-Israeli strikes hit Iran, rattling investors over inflation risks.
- Attention turns now to the March 6 U.S. payrolls data, with traders also watching for fresh direction in crude.
Shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) gained 1.4% on Monday, closing at $398.30. The stock outperformed the broader U.S. equity indexes, which saw little change as investors navigated a choppy trading day.
This is significant: Microsoft is right where two major trades keep running into each other. On one side, anxious investors pile into megacap tech. On the other, every uptick in oil or rates sparks resistance to expensive growth names.
For now, traders are still betting the near-term outlook hinges on whether turmoil in the Middle East flips into a fresh oil and inflation scare—one that could keep the Federal Reserve’s policy tighter, for longer.
U.S. stocks barely budged, finishing near unchanged after air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran rattled markets earlier in the day, though buyers stepped in during the latter part of the session. U.S. crude surged 6%, closing at $71.23 a barrel. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.01% gain, and the Nasdaq rose 0.32%, based on preliminary figures. “Market participants think this is all just temporary and that the problems in the oil patch will disappear,” said Bill Smead, founder and chairman of Smead Capital Management. 1
Microsoft tends to catch a lift from the “comfortable stocks” trade when investors rotate back into the deep-pocketed, highly liquid giants. Traders usually lump it in with the Magnificent Seven, the small cluster of megacap tech names that can single-handedly sway the major indexes.
Heightened tensions in the Middle East are turning attention toward Big Tech’s investment strategies across the region. Microsoft, for one, has outlined a $15.2 billion commitment in the United Arab Emirates running from 2023 through 2029. The company says it’s already put $7.3 billion to work, counting a $1.5 billion stake in G42—the UAE’s sovereign AI player—and over $4.6 billion aimed at boosting AI and cloud data-center capacity. Microsoft expects to pour another $7.9 billion into the UAE between 2026 and 2029, rounding out that headline figure. Others aren’t far behind: Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud from Alphabet, and Oracle have each mapped out their own multi-billion-dollar pushes, all eyeing a growing market. 2
Microsoft’s cloud and AI story has become central to the bull thesis. On the Jan. 28 earnings call, the company reported Microsoft Cloud revenue clearing $50 billion for the first time—a 26% jump year-over-year. Executives said demand for AI-driven capacity is running ahead of what they can provide in some segments. 3
The regular session is done, with after-hours trading now underway following the 4 p.m. bell. Traders are watching for the next set of drivers that could shake up rates and risk sentiment. “This is a market that’s still very, very focused on AI and the benefits,” said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, in comments to Reuters. She highlighted just how closely investors are tracking the timing of those AI gains trickling into corporate earnings. 4
The risk scenario isn’t hard to spot. Should the conflict escalate and oil prices remain elevated, inflation jitters could snap back quickly. That would send yields higher, squeezing valuations across tech — including cash-rich giants such as Microsoft.
Tuesday brings a batch of new Middle East updates, crude oil’s direction in play, and a watch on whether megacap names can keep their traction. Eyes ahead to the next key event: the U.S. February payrolls data, set for release March 6.
