SYDNEY, March 3, 2026, 17:42 AEDT — Market closed.
- ANZ closed up 0.18% at A$39.40, after a choppy session.
- Rate bets shifted after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said March was a “live” meeting.
- Australia’s GDP data is due Wednesday, with traders watching for a growth surprise.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd ended Tuesday up 0.07 Australian dollars, or 0.18%, at A$39.40, after trading between A$39.30 and A$39.765. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.34% to 9,077.30. 1
For investors, the point is not the seven cents. It’s the rates path and what it does to bank earnings, with mortgage payments already biting and funding costs quick to follow bond yields.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said a March rise was possible if inflation expectations looked at risk of drifting, adding: “I’m not making a prediction about March but it will be a live meeting.” Markets moved to price about a 30% chance of a quarter-point hike on March 17 and fully priced a move in May after three-year bond yields jumped 13 basis points — one-hundredth of a percentage point — to 4.313%. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank now see fourth-quarter GDP growth around 1%, while Westpac expects 1.1%. 2
Australia’s national accounts for the December 2025 quarter are due on Wednesday at 11:30am AEDT, and the number could nudge rate pricing again before the next session is even done. 3
Another labour-market read also kept the pressure on. ANZ-Indeed data showed job ads rose 3.2% in February, and Indeed senior economist Callam Pickering said the New Year had brought “renewed hiring vigour” across the country. 4
Bullock also pointed to the Middle East conflict as a fresh source of inflation uncertainty, warning “things can change quickly” and saying it was too early to judge the impact. The RBA’s cash rate — its policy rate — sits at 3.85% after a quarter-point rise in February. 5
That mix leaves banks in an awkward spot. Higher rates can lift lending margins, but they also raise the odds households fall behind on repayments, forcing lenders to set aside more money for potential losses.
ANZ comes into this stretch after a strong February trading update, when it posted a 17% jump in first-quarter cash profit and CEO Nuno Matos said a productivity drive was cutting expenses, helping push the stock to a record high. 6
But the risk case is easy to map. If energy prices stay high and rate rises come faster, borrower stress can overwhelm any margin uplift, and the market will start talking about bad debts again.
Next on the calendar is the RBA’s March policy meeting on March 16–17, with the decision statement due at 2:30pm AEDT on March 17 — and Wednesday’s GDP report will set the tone going in. 7
