London, March 4, 2026, 09:43 GMT — Regular session
Key points:
- NatWest shares edged up in early London trade after two bruising sessions for UK banks
- The lender disclosed a fresh chunk of buybacks, part of its 2026 capital return plan
- Investors are watching oil-driven inflation risks and Bank of England rate signals
NatWest Group (NWG.L) shares ticked higher on Wednesday, steadying after a sharp selloff that hit UK banks as oil prices surged and bond yields jumped.
The move matters because markets are rapidly repricing the path for UK interest rates, and that can swing bank earnings and credit risk in opposite directions. Higher rates can lift margins on new lending, but they can also strain borrowers and crimp demand.
At 09:44 GMT, NatWest was up about 0.2% at 587.2 pence, after trading between 583.6 and 589.2 pence. 1
Lloyds and Barclays were also modestly higher, echoing a tentative bounce across the sector after a broad risk-off run that dragged the FTSE indexes lower earlier in the week. 1
Late on Tuesday, NatWest said it bought 1,032,925 shares as part of its ongoing buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average price of about 585 pence a share across venues, and said it intended to cancel the stock. 2
The shares fell 2.5% on Tuesday and slid 2.9% on Monday, as bank stocks sagged along with the wider London market. 3
The backdrop is still set by energy. Brent has jumped in recent sessions, and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its second-quarter Brent forecast, warning that if Hormuz flows stayed disrupted “Brent prices would likely reach $100,” in its note. 4
That feeds directly into rate expectations. Capital Economics’ chief UK economist Paul Dales said the Bank of England “will be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation” than some peers, as traders slashed the implied chance of a cut later this month. 5
A lot can still go wrong. If the oil shock persists, investors may start to focus less on net interest income and more on where bad debts could surface first, particularly in unsecured lending and small business credit.
Next up, traders will be looking to the Bank of England’s March decision on March 19, while NatWest has flagged a March 17 appearance by CEO Paul Thwaite at Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference. 6
