New York, March 4, 2026, 12:33 (ET) — Regular session.
- Dow edges higher, lifted by a tech bounce and as oil prices level off from their recent peak.
- Headlines out of the Middle East are pushing inflation worries—and the timing of rate cuts—right back into the spotlight.
- Eyes turn to the Fed’s Beige Book release later Wednesday, with the U.S. jobs report coming up Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 324.35 points, or 0.67%, reaching 48,824.77 as of 11:53 a.m. ET Wednesday. Amazon.com and Nvidia both gained after news broke about secret Iranian overtures to the U.S., plus actions from President Donald Trump to stabilize oil prices. “Until people think what’s happening in the Middle East will cause a recession, they’re giving stocks the benefit of the doubt,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. The S&P 500 added 0.88%, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.45%. 1
The rebound carries weight because Tuesday’s sharp drop was sparked by the very issue still dogging traders: whether the Middle East conflict could push up energy prices enough to fan inflation again. The Dow slid 403.51 points, or 0.83%, that day. “There seems to be some notion” this war might “persist longer” and start to “impact energy infrastructure,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services. 2
Oil’s been swinging sharply, though prices took a breather: Brent slipped 0.3% to $81.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged down 0.4% to $74.30 as of 11:18 a.m. ET. According to Reuters, for a fifth straight day, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill. Giovanni Staunovo at UBS noted traders “seem to expect a de-escalation,” but flagged the risk of deeper output cuts if the gridlock continues. 3
New numbers out of the U.S. as well. ADP reported private payrolls jumped by 63,000 in February—strongest since July 2025—but January’s figure was trimmed to an 11,000 gain. Most of those new jobs showed up in education, health, and construction. The Fed, for its part, kept its benchmark overnight rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January. According to the report, traders have pulled back on expectations for a June rate cut following the recent energy-price shock. 4
Growth signals from the services sector looked different. The Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI landed at 56.1 in February, marking expansion territory. Business activity scored 59.9, and new orders reached 58.6. Its employment index edged higher to 51.8. 5
Economists are debating whether robust demand will eventually get squeezed by rising costs. Wells Fargo figures that if oil sticks 10% higher, headline inflation could climb by about 0.3 percentage point in both the second and third quarter. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs sees a $10 bump in crude taking roughly 0.1 percentage point off GDP growth for 2026 if elevated prices persist. The ISM survey came out before the latest flare-up, but it did single out the war as a potential drag on the outlook. 6
Because the Dow is price-weighted, higher-priced stocks can yank the index’s number up or down in a hurry. It sometimes leaves sessions appearing tidier than what’s really happening underneath.
The oil tail-risk hasn’t budged. UBS bumped up its Brent outlook for both the first quarter and for 2026, warning that fresh hits to regional energy infrastructure could shove Brent above $90 a barrel. Close the Strait of Hormuz for any length of time, and prices could easily break $100. 7
Traders are watching for the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET—a district-by-district readout that helps them assess wage and price pressures. 8
The government’s February jobs data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday—rate-cut wagers face a key hurdle after days ruled by oil headlines and war jitters. 9
