NEW YORK, March 4, 2026, 12:44 EST — Regular session underway.
- Gold bounced after a steep drop the previous day, recovering ground as investors sought safety and the dollar eased.
- With U.S. jobs numbers due Friday, traders are on edge; rate-cut wagers remain volatile.
- Gold-linked ETFs showed mixed movement, with major mining stocks also trading in a split pattern by midday.
Gold bounced back Wednesday, clawing back ground after sharp declines the day before. Ongoing turmoil in the Middle East revived safe-haven demand, while a softer dollar also lent support. Spot gold gained 1.2% to $5,146.76 an ounce as of 1628 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.7%, settling at $5,158.20. 1
This shift is notable: bullion hasn’t acted as the usual safe haven during this week’s turmoil. Instead, prices have moved alongside the dollar and bigger risk assets. Now, trader chatter has pivoted from “fear” to liquidity — who’s short on cash, and who’s next.
Gold doesn’t pay interest—it’s what traders call a “non-yielding” asset—so it tends to react sharply when rate expectations shift. Falling rates can give it a lift, while rising yields often drag it lower. This week has seen those signals collide, with war-linked energy price moves tugging one way and changing bets on rate cuts pulling the other.
The market flipped sharply on Tuesday. The dollar index jumped 0.5%, hitting its highest level in over three months, while spot gold tumbled to around $5,136 — not seen since Feb. 20 — as investors slashed positions and scrambled for cash to meet possible margin calls. “Have the fundamentals changed? The answer is no,” said Robert Gottlieb, former head of precious metals at Koch Supply and Trading. BNP Paribas, for its part, boosted its 2026 average gold target to $5,620 and pointed to a shot at $6,250 or higher before year-end. 2
Geopolitics took center stage again. Oil prices jumped earlier this week as concerns mounted that the U.S.-Israeli air campaign targeting Iran might continue, stoking inflation jitters and sending Treasury yields higher—even while investors moved into safe-haven assets. 3
Macro figures have taken center stage as a second front. The ADP report put U.S. private payroll gains at 63,000 for February, topping expectations—even as January numbers were revised down sharply. Eyes are on Friday’s government data, where economists are calling for a nonfarm payrolls increase of 59,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Rate markets reflect the push and pull: traders have stepped back from bets on imminent Fed cuts, with the policy rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. 4
The February jobs report from the Labour Department is set for release on Friday, March 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. 5
Platinum’s supply situation stands out, too. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a fourth consecutive annual deficit in 2026—still a deficit, but not as deep as last year’s. That dynamic continues to highlight how tight physical markets remain across the metal sector. 6
Gold stocks didn’t move in lockstep with the metal. SPDR Gold Shares added around 0.8%. Newmont rose 1.5%. Agnico Eagle, on the other hand, dropped close to 0.8% in early afternoon action.
Still, the debate is far from over. A stronger-than-expected jobs report, or another bout of energy-driven inflation nerves, might send both the dollar and yields higher—and that could stall gold’s gains, particularly after the wild swings seen lately.
The next big data point for traders: Friday’s payrolls. Right after that, they’ll be watching for U.S. consumer inflation figures for February, set to land March 11. 7
