MIAMI, March 9, 2026, 12:44 EDT
Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc slipped over 7% early Monday, hit hard as a renewed spike in oil prices rattled cruise names and fueled worries about fuel expenses tied to the company’s 2026 projections. Royal Caribbean dropped 6.3% as well.
The change is notable: Carnival’s December outlook banked on 2026 fuel averaging $524 per metric ton—well under the $610 it shelled out, on average, for 2025. According to the company, every 10% swing in fuel prices per ton tugs full-year adjusted net income by roughly $145 million.
Brent crude spiked to $119.50 a barrel on Sunday—levels last seen in 2022—then pulled back as officials weighed emergency supply moves amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Cruise operators feel that kind of surge almost immediately. Margins get pinched long before they can pass along costs or offset the impact.
Sharon Zackfia at William Blair flagged that higher fuel prices could slice roughly 20 cents off Carnival’s 2026 EPS—despite a small currency tailwind. “This translates into muted EPS growth this year versus prior expectations for growth of about 10%,” Zackfia said. She also pointed out that Carnival isn’t hedging its fuel buys. Seatrade Cruise News
That’s the flip side here. In December, Reuters noted Carnival’s bookings climbed post-Black Friday. CEO Josh Weinstein called it “a favorable indicator for wave season”—that crucial January-to-March period—while the company projected adjusted 2026 earnings as high as $2.48 per share and brought back its dividend. Reuters
Carnival went into this turmoil with lighter Gulf exposure than a few competitors. According to Zackfia, the company had already yanked AIDA Cruises and Costa Cruises from winter Gulf sailings for 2025/26. Norwegian last week flagged that geopolitical tensions are making it tough to predict its 2026 fuel costs, while Royal Caribbean back in January lifted its profit outlook above Wall Street forecasts, citing stronger demand.
Oil isn’t the sole concern. Zackfia called it premature to tally the broader business effects, but pointed out “potential for traveler anxiety” that might trigger “modestly elevated” cancellations and softer close-in bookings for the second quarter—especially on Pacific coast Mexico routes. Seatrade Cruise News
Carnival’s overhaul continues. Last month, the company announced plans to consolidate its New York and London listings under one parent, with a shift of incorporation to Bermuda. The move aims to streamline governance, trim administrative expenses, and boost liquidity, according to the company.
