OSLO, March 10, 2026, 19:17 CET
European natural gas prices fell sharply on Tuesday as hopes of a quicker end to the Middle East conflict stripped some risk premium from a market that had surged to three-year highs a day earlier. The Dutch front-month Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract, Europe’s benchmark, fell by 7.98 euros to 48.47 euros per megawatt hour by 08:52 GMT after hitting an intraday high of 69.50 euros on Monday. Britain’s April gas contract was down 19.90 pence at 123.63 pence per therm. 1
The retreat matters because Europe’s gas storage is below 30% full while Qatar remains unable to move liquefied natural gas, or LNG — gas chilled into liquid form for shipping — through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. That leaves Europe and Asia bidding for replacement cargoes even after Tuesday’s pullback. 1
The immediate trigger was President Donald Trump’s remark that the conflict could end “soon.” Those comments sent oil and gas lower late on Monday, and oil kept falling after gas markets closed, putting pressure on Tuesday’s opening prices, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief economist at Global Risk Management, said. 1
Traders were not reading the move as the end of the squeeze. “Those volumes will be competed for tooth and nail,” Ben Samuel, an energy markets analyst at Marex, said of LNG cargoes that usually head to Europe in March and April when Asian demand eases. He said Europe will need an extra 11 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas this summer to match the end-September fullness seen last year. 1
The scramble is already visible. India said on Tuesday it was lining up more LNG from outside the Middle East, while Spain’s February LNG imports rose almost 20% from a year earlier and U.S. supplies made up 33.8% of the total, data from Spanish grid operator Enagas showed. 2
U.S. exporters are one of the few relief valves. Freeport LNG in Texas was ramping back toward full production after a weekend outage. Venture Global told Plaquemines Phase 1 customers it still planned to start contracted deliveries on Oct. 31 despite the spike in global gas prices. 3
That flexibility is not unlimited. Kpler data showed the United States sent 68% of its LNG to Europe in 2025 and had already lifted Asia-bound tonnage by nearly 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Australia, Russia, Malaysia and Nigeria are also seen adjusting delivery schedules as buyers chase cargoes. 4
The main risk is that Tuesday’s drop proves brief. If the fighting drags on or tanker traffic through Hormuz does not normalize, gas could tighten again quickly; even if the broader conflict cools, restarting disrupted energy supply chains “won’t be swift,” Wood Mackenzie chairman Simon Flowers said. 5
