WASHINGTON, March 10, 2026, 16:19 EDT.
U.S. regulators are on track to unveil a more lenient version of the Basel bank-capital rules in the next few weeks—a development that may give Capital One Financial some breathing room as it works through the Discover Financial Services integration and anticipates closing its Brex acquisition. 1
This hits now because the Basel overhaul applies to banks holding over $100 billion in assets. The Discover deal got the green light as a merger forming the eighth-largest U.S. bank insured by deposits, clocking in at roughly $637.8 billion in assets. If regulators opt for a looser framework, big banks could find themselves with more latitude to lend or pursue buybacks. 2
Basel sets the standards for how major banks gauge risk and determine their capital buffers. Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, called the latest revision “quite friendly to banks,” something most in the industry had been anticipating. 3
Ripples are hitting the sector. On Tuesday, Bank of America flagged that the Basel endgame’s final rules might end up cutting its regulatory capital. And for the largest U.S. Wall Street banks, Douglas Elliott at Oliver Wyman projected U.S. GSIB capital could shrink by as much as 10% in the next few years, details pending. 4
Things have moved quickly for Capital One. On May 18, 2025, it wrapped up its $35.3 billion acquisition of Discover, vaulting the company to the top spot among U.S. credit card issuers by balances. With Discover’s payment network now in hand, Capital One goes head-to-head with Visa and Mastercard. 5
Capital One announced in January a $5.15 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Brex, targeting a mid-2026 closing. The acquisition steers Capital One further into business payments, a step that may gradually lessen its dependency on consumer credit. 6
But the benefits from relaxed regulations aren’t guaranteed yet. The plan needs to make it through publication, public review, and the final rulemaking process. If Democrats pick up more seats in Congress, the process could face tougher opposition. Meanwhile, Trump’s push for a one-year 10% ceiling on credit card interest rates is still an open threat for banks with large card businesses. 1
Capital One stands out here—credit cards account for almost half of its loans. Back in January, CEO Richard Fairbank warned that imposing a rate cap could produce “unintended consequences.” Brian Jacobsen at Annex Wealth Management called credit cards “unsecured loans.” Capital One’s stock dropped as much as 8.2% when chatter about the cap began early this year, and on Tuesday, shares were still off about 0.4%. 7
