LONDON, March 11, 2026, 13:45 GMT
Glencore plc dipped Wednesday, slipping to 515.7 pence by 13:00 GMT—a decline of 6.9 pence—after unionized workers at its Townsville copper refinery in Australia threatened to walk out. Investors kept picking over management’s latest attempt to pitch Glencore’s copper business on its own.
Timing is key here. Glencore dropped its 2025 annual report on Tuesday. Just two days before that, Chief Executive Gary Nagle floated the idea of a secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange, or ASX, as a move to potentially widen the shareholder base following Rio Tinto’s exit from takeover discussions.
Nagle told the Australian Financial Review that an ASX listing might “give investors another option other than Rio and BHP,” but he also said Glencore would have to get shareholder input and take advice before making any moves. That leaves the stock caught between two narratives: execution in copper, and whether management can close the valuation gap absent a deal. Reuters
Glencore’s annual report doesn’t mince words. CEO Gary Nagle is sticking with the “copper-led growth strategy,” and the company is projecting annual copper output to top 1 million tonnes by the close of 2028, on its way to about 1.6 million tonnes in 2035. Glencore
That’s the detail investors latch onto. Copper, crucial for everything from power grids to construction and EVs, is driving mining deals right now. Glencore, back in February, reported a 6% dip in adjusted EBITDA to $13.51 billion for 2025, but still committed to $2 billion in shareholder payouts. The miner also flagged a 49% surge in second-half core profit; CEO Nagle described the H2 “underlying momentum” as obvious. Reuters
The dispute in Townsville could undercut that message. The Australian Workers’ Union says workers intend to strike on Friday, after almost a year of stalled negotiations over pay and conditions. Another bargaining session is set for Thursday. Glencore, for its part, called the planned walkout disappointing, repeating that it’s still aiming for a fair deal. The company maintains the refinery is projected to post losses even after last year’s A$600 million in government support for both the Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville site.
When Rio dropped out back in February, one clear path to a loftier valuation vanished. That planned merger would have put together the world’s mining heavyweight, but Rio stepped back after both parties couldn’t settle on terms. Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina noted there’s still a chance of another bid, though he clarified, “not our base case.” Reuters
So Glencore is left pressing its options: get deals done, or work the capital markets. BHP’s bid for Anglo American unraveled. The all-stock Anglo-Teck Resources merger remains the last significant copper transaction on the table—a clear signal that what looks logical for the sector doesn’t always close.
For investors, the risk is clear enough: if the strike in Australia drags on, if unprofitable processing assets take more heat, or if coal prices slide again, convincing shareholders on the standalone plan won’t get any easier—especially with management urging them to move beyond the collapsed Rio Tinto talks. Coal prices, in particular, weighed on earnings projections for 2025.
Glencore has set May 28 for its annual general meeting, marking the next official moment for shareholders to weigh in on whether the copper plan carries enough weight to support the stock’s trajectory.
