Lagos, March 12, 2026, 19:25 WAT
- Nigeria’s fuel regulator hasn’t granted any new petrol import licences for February or so far this March, citing sufficient local supply to cover demand. 1
- In February, Dangote refinery accounted for roughly 36.5 million litres of petrol a day. Imports, by comparison, came in at just 3 million litres daily, putting Dangote’s share of new supply for the month at around 92%. 2
- Analysts and labor groups caution that the move risks tightening market concentration, despite Abuja’s insistence that price controls aren’t coming back. 3
For the second month running, Nigeria hasn’t issued any new petrol import permits, effectively clearing the way for Aliko Dangote’s refinery to tighten its grip on the fuel market. According to NMDPRA figures, Dangote delivered 36.5 million litres per day in February, while imports averaged a mere 3 million litres—enough for the refinery to control roughly 92% of Nigeria’s new domestic supply. 1
The clash over imports is suddenly hitting drivers at the pump, with crude markets and freight rates still rattled by Middle East conflict. It’s a sharp turn from last year, when Dangote took the policy dispute to court before eventually backing out. Gone, too, is the long-standing regulatory line that imports were necessary to preserve competition. 4
The Petroleum Industry Act, or PIA, limits imports to covering any domestic supply gap. For now, there’s “no need to import,” according to George Ene-Ita, who speaks for the regulator. Eche Idoko at the Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria described the development as a boost for local producers. Finance Minister Wale Edun added that Abuja won’t revive fuel price controls. 2
Petrol demand in Nigeria remains tricky to pin down. According to NMDPRA, daily consumption slipped to 56.9 million litres in February, from 60.2 million in January. Yet the regulator’s own factsheet for February shows new market supply at just 39.6 million litres a day. That gap has traders and consumers still debating how much wiggle room the market actually has. 1
It’s not just Dangote’s scale at play. In February, both Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries stayed offline, Warri saw zero evacuation, and the smaller modular plants continued to focus on diesel instead of premium motor spirit—Nigeria’s term for petrol. That left Dangote standing as the country’s main domestic petrol producer. 2
Business Insider Africa, citing NMDPRA figures, reported that TotalEnergies’ Nigerian arm, Conoil, and MRS Nigeria together brought in roughly 25% of January’s gasoline imports before the halt. On Wednesday, NNPC slashed retail pump prices—N1,130 per litre in Lagos, N1,165 in Abuja—just two days after Dangote dropped its refinery gate price to N1,075. 5
Energy scholar Wumi Iledare described the import halt as a “significant policy signal,” but flagged the risk of stockpiling and opportunistic pricing unless supply clarity improves. Dayo Ayoade, professor of energy law, pointed to a bigger problem: Nigeria is short on working rival refineries, not just facing Dangote’s dominance. The regulator, he added, still holds authority to act against market abuse. 3
Labour groups aren’t letting up. Christopher Onyeka, assistant secretary-general at the Nigeria Labour Congress, warned that putting one supplier in charge of such a crucial market could spell trouble for consumers—think price exploitation. He’s pushing for some short-term oversight until the field gets more players. 3
The situation remains up in the air. Dangote told ThisDay that import licences continue to be issued “despite that we can meet the demand,” insisting his refinery’s daily capacity could hit 75 million litres. That statement clashes with the regulator’s position: no new licences have been granted this year, according to their official line. 6
Nigeria, after years of relying on fuel imports thanks to chronically underperforming or idle state refineries, now faces a pivotal moment as the freeze kicks in. The timing isn’t easy: the International Energy Agency reported Thursday that the Middle East conflict has triggered the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded—a jolt that could swiftly reveal if Nigeria’s revamped focus on domestic supply is up to the challenge. 3
