SYDNEY, March 13, 2026, 08:45 AEDT
- ANZ closed at A$37.02 on Thursday, down 2.53%, while the S&P/ASX 200 ended 1.31% lower at 8,629. 1
- Oil prices near $100 and rising expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate increase next week hit Australian bank stocks. 2
- ANZ named Tammy Medard to lead its Business & Private Bank from May 1. 3
ANZ Group Holdings fell more sharply than the broader Australian market on Thursday, closing at A$37.02, as investors sold bank stocks on fresh inflation worries and a fast repricing of interest-rate expectations. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended down 1.31% at 8,629. 1
The drop matters because ANZ had rallied hard only a month ago after a stronger-than-expected first-quarter update and early signs of traction from CEO Nuno Matos’s cost-cutting drive. Thursday’s close left the stock about 8% below the record A$40.20 it reached on Feb. 12, showing how quickly the market has moved from rewarding execution to worrying about the broader economy. 4
What changed was the backdrop. Oil surged to around $100 a barrel after fresh attacks on tankers in the Gulf, raising fears of another inflation shock just as ANZ’s own weekly survey showed inflation expectations jumped 0.8 percentage point to 6.1%, the biggest rise since the series began in 2010. 2
Markets quickly lifted the probability of an RBA increase at its next meeting to about 78%, up from under 30% earlier this week. Economists at Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac now expect a move, and Commonwealth Bank’s Belinda Allen said “the balance of probabilities has shifted.” 5
ANZ’s fall was steeper than Commonwealth Bank’s 0.62% drop and Westpac’s 1.19% decline, and broadly in line with NAB’s 1.96% loss. That left ANZ among the weaker big-four names on the day. 1
Company-specific news also kept the bank in focus. ANZ said Tammy Medard would become Group Executive, Business & Private Bank from May 1, replacing Clare Morgan, as Matos continues to reshape the senior team. Matos described Medard as an “experienced and customer-focused” business banker. 3
The reshuffle lands in the middle of Matos’s wider overhaul. In February, ANZ reported A$1.94 billion in first-quarter cash profit, said more than half of its planned 3,500 job cuts had been completed by the end of 2025, and saw the shares jump as much as 8.25% to that A$40.20 record. Citigroup’s Thomas Strong said the beat was “largely driven” by faster progress on costs, while Jefferies’ Andrew Lyons said “the real test” would be how ANZ manages net interest margin — the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on funding — as it chases more housing growth. 4
Investors are also moving closer to ANZ’s half-year results on May 1 after the bank brought the date forward from May 7 last week and moved the interim dividend’s ex-dividend date — when new buyers no longer receive the upcoming payout — to May 12. That shortens the wait for the next hard check on whether the turnaround is carrying through. 6
But the next move in the shares may depend less on ANZ than on oil and the RBA. Deutsche Bank’s Phil O’Donaghoe said “our base case now is for a hike,” though a further worsening in the Middle East conflict could still change that; if oil eases, part of Thursday’s selloff could unwind, but if fuel stays high, pressure on households, loan demand and bad debts could build. 7
ANZ shares are still up about 1.9% since the start of 2026, but Thursday’s fall showed how quickly the market has shifted from cost-cut optimism to a colder read on the cycle. 8
