LONDON, March 13, 2026, 14:45 GMT
NatWest Group Plc slid 2.55% to finish at 573 pence on Thursday, weighed down as rising oil prices shook UK banks and put rate-cut bets back in doubt. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% as trading got underway Friday, with London’s market still struggling by 1058 GMT.
NatWest started the week in a solid spot—profit targets raised, a £750 million buyback on the table, and stepping harder into wealth management. It’s a strong story among UK banks. But with oil prices elevated, inflation still sticky, and the BoE possibly holding off on rate cuts, those positives face a tougher test.
Danni Hewson at AJ Bell didn’t mince words: “The longer the disruption goes on, the greater the impact on energy prices and in turn global inflation.” Over at Berenberg, analyst Jonathan Stubbs warned of “a prolonged closure and persistently high energy prices” as the real risk. Markets have now dropped expectations for a March BoE cut, LSEG data shows. BofA, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and Morgan Stanley all moved their rate cut forecasts further out. Reuters
Bank shares took a sharp hit Thursday, with the FTSE bank index losing 4.8% as worries over rising energy prices rattled investors. HSBC and Standard Chartered also dealt with operational headaches in the Gulf, after the conflict spilled over.
NatWest still has some tailwinds unique to itself. The bank reported a 2025 pretax profit of 7.7 billion pounds last month, coming in just ahead of the 7.5 billion pound analyst consensus that NatWest itself compiled. Management also bumped its 2028 return on tangible equity target, now aiming for over 18%—an upgrade from its previous mark of “more than 15%.” The company laid out a 750 million pound share buyback, too. Return on tangible equity gauges profit against shareholder capital, a standard metric for lenders. “We are raising our ambition and sharpening our strategic focus,” CEO Paul Thwaite said. Reuters
Just days ago, NatWest struck a deal to acquire Evelyn Partners, a wealth manager, for 2.7 billion pounds including debt—marking its largest purchase since the 2008 bailout. The lender said snapping up Evelyn would push its assets under management and administration past 127 billion pounds, more than doubling the current figure, and is expected to deliver roughly 100 million pounds in yearly cost savings.
Still, there are warning signs. Jefferies called the Evelyn acquisition strategically logical but flagged its steep price tag, estimating NatWest’s earnings per share could drop 2% through 2028 compared to going it alone. Meanwhile, a RICS survey pointed to a cooling UK housing market, with buyers jittery about both the conflict and the risk of higher mortgage rates.
Looking at upcoming dates, NatWest goes ex-dividend March 19, with the final payout set at 23.0 pence per share, pending shareholder approval. Thwaite, meanwhile, is lined up to address Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference on March 17—weeks before first-quarter results hit on May 1, according to company materials.
The race is getting fierce. On March 11, Revolut secured final regulatory signoff for its British bank, opening the door to direct competition in things like current accounts and consumer lending. “The full licence will sharpen pressure on both traditional banks and the cohort of challenger banks,” said Elliot Reader, a director in Houlihan Lokey’s fintech group. Reuters
NatWest ended Thursday at 573 pence, putting shares roughly 18.8% off their 52-week high of £7.05 from Feb. 4.
