LONDON, March 16, 2026, 13:11 GMT.
Shell climbed 1.4% by 0931 GMT on Monday, outpacing a sluggish broader market as crude prices stayed north of $100 a barrel. The company also rolled out fresh long-term projections for LNG demand. That was enough to put the shares near the top of London’s main index.
This time, Shell finds itself straddling both oil and LNG just as the energy shock bites. With the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG traffic, fresh turmoil there has investors scrambling to reassess their inflation and rate forecasts. Kenneth Broux, who heads up corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale, puts it bluntly: “how long does the conflict last”. Reuters
Shell, the world’s top LNG dealer, has tightened its forecast for 2040 demand, now projecting between 650 million and 710 million metric tons annually, while introducing a 2050 estimate spanning 610 million to 780 million tons. Monday’s numbers aren’t set in stone, the company cautioned, citing ongoing conflict that’s disrupted oil and LNG flows.
Shell’s U.S. shares changed hands at $89.43, up $1.07, as of 12:53 UTC in New York. BP’s European stock moved in step, also climbing 1.4%. Investors appeared to be putting money into the sector as a whole, not just Shell.
Still, shares of major oil companies haven’t kept pace with crude’s rally since late February. “The market’s betting on a swift end to the Hormuz closure,” said James West, head of energy and power research at Melius Research. That expectation, he noted, is likely holding back big oil stocks from moving in step with spot oil. Reuters
There’s a reason for that restraint. Last month, Shell reported a fourth-quarter profit of $3.3 billion—missing estimates—but left its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback unchanged and bumped the dividend up 4% to $0.372 a share. The company’s focus on keeping payouts steady has propped up the stock.
There’s a catch if oil prices keep pushing higher. Barclays, on Friday, pegged its $85 Brent forecast for 2026 on the idea that the Hormuz situation sorts itself out in two to three weeks. But PVM’s Tamas Varga flagged that any “prolonged conflict” could hit hard—potentially knocking Shell in two ways: a sharp pullback in crude, or a bigger drag on fuel demand and its refining and chemicals units. Reuters
This week, investors are eyeing policy meetings across Britain, the U.S., and the euro zone, hoping for signals on how central banks might respond to the energy price surge. Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at Raymond James, pointed out that attention will likely center on fresh economic forecasts. Meanwhile, Shell confirmed it will announce its first-quarter results on May 7.
