LONDON, March 16, 2026, 13:11 GMT.
Shell shares were up 1.4% by 0931 GMT on Monday, beating a softer wider market as oil held above $100 a barrel and the company published a new long-term demand range for liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The move left the stock among the stronger names on London’s main index. 1
That matters now because Shell sits on both sides of the current energy shock: oil and LNG. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG, has pushed investors to rethink inflation and interest-rate bets; Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale, said the key question is “how long does the conflict last”. 2
Shell, the world’s biggest LNG trader, narrowed its 2040 LNG demand range to 650 million to 710 million metric tons a year and added a 2050 range of 610 million to 780 million tons. The company said Monday’s figures were not final because the conflict had upended oil and LNG trade. 3
In New York, Shell’s U.S.-listed shares traded at $89.43, up $1.07, at 12:53 UTC. BP matched Shell’s 1.4% rise in Europe, a sign investors were buying the sector rather than chasing a single stock. 4
Even so, big oil shares have lagged crude’s jump since late February. James West, head of energy and power research at Melius Research, said the market was still pricing a “swift end” to the Hormuz closure, which helps explain why large oil companies have not fully tracked spot oil higher. 5
That restraint has a backdrop. Shell last month posted fourth-quarter profit of $3.3 billion, below forecasts, but kept its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback and lifted its dividend 4% to $0.372 a share, sticking with the shareholder-payout story that has helped support the stock. 6
The risk is that higher oil does not stay a clean positive. Barclays said on Friday its $85-a-barrel Brent case for 2026 assumes Hormuz normalises within two to three weeks, while PVM analyst Tamas Varga warned a “prolonged conflict” would be severe — leaving Shell exposed to either a quick retreat in crude or a deeper hit to fuel demand and to its refining and chemicals units. 7
Investors are also watching policy meetings in Britain, the United States and the euro zone this week for clues on how central banks treat the energy spike. Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at Raymond James, said the focus would be on updated economic forecasts, while Shell has said it will report first-quarter results on May 7. 1
