Sydney, March 17, 2026, 05:55 AEDT
Australian shares closed lower on Monday, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ending down 0.4% at 8,583.4, its third straight loss, as softer commodity prices hit miners and traders cut risk before the Reserve Bank of Australia decision. Trading was thin as Gulf hostilities stretched into a third week and kept oil supply worries in focus. 1
The drop lands at a delicate moment. Australia stands out in a week packed with major central-bank meetings, with markets leaning toward another quarter-point rise to 4.1% on Tuesday even as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to hold steady. 2
Oil has driven that repricing. Brent was at $100.56 a barrel on Monday even after a 2.5% fall on the day, and both Brent and U.S. crude are still up nearly 40% in March. Twenty-three of 30 economists tipped a quarter-point RBA increase, and Commonwealth Bank economist Belinda Allen said, “We now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate in March and May.” 3 4 5
Banks and energy names held up better than the rest of the market. Financials rose 0.4%, with Commonwealth Bank up 1% to its highest level in more than two weeks, and the energy sector added 0.5% for a fourth straight gain; Cliff Man, chief executive of ETF Shares, said “the geopolitical risk premium could persist” and continue to support energy stocks even if oil prices ease. Mining stocks went the other way, falling 2.4% to their weakest since early January as iron ore retreated from two-month highs, with Rio Tinto down 2%, Fortescue off 3.9% and BHP losing 1.2%. 6
Stock-specific news was mixed. South32 fell 5.7% after saying it had placed its Mozal aluminium smelter on care and maintenance, while Lynas Rare Earths rose 1.4% after its U.S. unit signed a binding letter of intent with the U.S. government on a rare-earth oxide supply deal; Chief Executive Amanda Lacaze said the agreement would keep the U.S. defense industrial base supplied with materials “essential for modern manufacturing.” 7 8
Perpetual was up 1.9% in Monday trade after agreeing to sell its wealth management business to Bain Capital for an upfront A$500 million. Graphite miner Syrah Resources rose 2.9% after extending to June 1 a deadline with Tesla to resolve an alleged default under their supply agreement. 9 10
But the near-term path is still muddy. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said there would be a “genuine debate” at Tuesday’s meeting and warned that moving too fast could slow the economy sharply if the Middle East shock ends up weighing on growth more than it lifts inflation. 11
Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe said, “An amplification of the conflict in coming days could still prompt a pause, but our base case now is for a hike.” For investors, that leaves the ASX in a narrow lane: expensive oil can keep helping energy stocks, but a firmer RBA and weaker commodity prices would deepen the drag elsewhere in the market. 12 2
