SYDNEY, March 17, 2026, 09:59 AEDT
Santos Limited climbed 2.1% to end Monday at A$7.69, outpacing a sluggish Australian market as investors rotated into energy stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4%. 1
Santos is under pressure right now. Back in February, the company announced plans to trim about 10% of its workforce and take a hard look at its Australian integrated oil and gas assets, responding to a 25% slide in underlying earnings. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to hike rates again this week, adding another layer of uncertainty. 2
Monday’s jump caught attention. According to Reuters, the ASX energy sub-index picked up 1.4%, defying weakness in the miners. Santos and Woodside ranked among the session’s top-performing large caps. 3
Oil markets shrugged off the idea of a straightforward supply jolt. “A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz seems considerably overstated,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore said, highlighting Saudi pipeline alternatives, a possible U.S. reserve release, and reports that non-allied ships—including those bound for China and India—might keep moving through the strait. 4
Brent finished Monday at $100.21 a barrel, Reuters said, holding onto gains of nearly 40% since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG—liquefied natural gas—moves through the strait, a key route that keeps exporters like Santos in the mix. 5
Santos is flexing more leverage these days, adding fresh supply to the market. Back in January, the company projected that Barossa gas and first oil from its Alaskan Pikka project would push production up by 25% to 30% by 2027 compared with 2024. CEO Kevin Gallagher described these projects as soon becoming part of the group’s “base business.” Citi analyst Tom Wallington pointed out the first Darwin LNG cargo could “allay investor concerns” about any significant new commissioning issues. 6
This isn’t simply an oil play. Back in February, Santos—Australia’s No. 2 in oil and gas—announced around 10% of its workforce would be let go after falling short of earnings expectations. According to Barrenjoey’s Dale Koenders, the market’s putting “zero value” on some of Santos’s undeveloped assets. Over at Jarden, analysts flagged that the staff reductions ought to cut operating costs. 2
Any further slide in oil might take the steam out of the rally. Brent dropped 2.8% on Monday, Reuters reported, as some ships managed to pass through Hormuz and the International Energy Agency flagged the potential for additional emergency stock releases. Still, HSBC’s Paul Bloxham called the recent oil surge a “clear downside risk to the global economy.” 5
Santos is caught between rising energy prices, which give revenue a boost, and a tougher macro backdrop that threatens to dent demand and drive up borrowing costs. Right now, markets are pricing in roughly a 75% chance that the RBA hikes rates this week. For the stock, the near-term focus is still squarely on traffic moving through Hormuz. 7
