Perth, March 18, 2026, 06:10 AWST.
Northern Star Resources managed a slight rebound Tuesday, closing 0.39% higher at A$20.66. That uptick followed a bruising 23% drop over the previous two sessions, triggered by its fresh fiscal 2026 production warning. Despite the pause in selling, the stock remained one of the most heavily traded by value on the ASX.
That slight uptick barely put a dent in the aftermath of one of Northern Star’s steepest drops in recent years. Now, investors are left guessing—are the hiccups at Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) and Jundee just short-term snags before the new mill comes online, or is there something more stubborn at play?
Northern Star reported gold sales of 220,000 ounces for January and February, and has now revised its fiscal 2026 production target to a figure above 1.50 million ounces—down from the previous 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounce guidance. Managing director Stuart Tonkin said the focus for the next four months is on laying the groundwork for fiscal 2027, rather than prioritizing “the achievement of short-term guidance above all else,” with the new KCGM plant still scheduled to launch at the start of that fiscal year. The company counted about 800 contractors currently working on the plant itself, another 400 on enabling works, and noted a stockpile of approximately 100,000 ounces of higher-grade ore logged at February’s end, set aside for processing in the coming year. Northern Star also said it plans to provide medium-term production, cost and capital projections later this year, with the March-quarter update due on April 22. NSR Limited
Morningstar equity analyst Jon Mills lowered his earnings outlook for fiscal 2026 through 2028, pointing to the new, larger replacement mill as a likely solution for most of the KCGM output problems—though he’s factoring in a slower ramp-up phase. Despite the recent drop in the stock, Mills still considers the shares well above Morningstar’s fair value estimate of A$15.
Brokers wasted no time slashing targets. According to Market Index, which rounded up Tuesday’s research, JPMorgan dropped Northern Star to neutral from overweight and chopped its target price all the way down to A$24 from A$39. RBC wasn’t far behind, paring its own target to A$28 from A$31.50. Jarden, holding firm on its underweight stance, stuck with a target of A$16.60.
Peers told a similar story. Evolution Mining jumped 3.66% on Tuesday. Northern Star, by contrast, managed only a 0.39% lift—a split that points to traders seeing the impact as isolated to the company, not as a sector-wide trend.
Higher bullion prices have given Northern Star a boost, but investors have also focused on its project pipeline. In December 2024, Reuters reported Northern Star moved to acquire De Grey Mining in an all-share deal that put a A$5 billion tag on the target. Morningstar expects De Grey’s Hemi project to potentially deliver around 500,000 ounces annually by 2030.
Still, any recovery could unravel fast if KCGM throughput remains unpredictable, or if Jundee’s review doesn’t push output up in the better-yielding zones. In that case, Northern Star faces a possible fresh cut to production or a cost rethink when March-quarter figures land on April 22.
