SYDNEY, March 18, 2026, 09:45 AEDT
Santos Limited shares ticked higher on March 17, closing at A$7.71, with Brent crude finishing the session at $103.42 a barrel. Renewed Iranian attacks on the UAE rattled nerves over Middle East supply, feeding into the move. That kept Santos—Australia’s No. 2 oil and gas producer—firmly on traders’ radar.
The clock’s a factor here. Back in January, Santos flagged a boost in 2026 output, hinging on the Barossa gas project and Alaska’s Pikka oil ramping up. CEO Kevin Gallagher projected the pair would “lift Santos’ production by around 25 to 30 per cent by 2027.” Reuters
The pledge comes as Santos’s earnings have slipped. Back in February, the company posted a 25% decline in underlying 2025 profit, falling short of market forecasts. Management also outlined plans to eliminate roughly 10% of jobs and began a review of its Australian integrated oil and gas assets. Jarden analysts noted investors would likely welcome the staff cuts as evidence of tighter cost controls. Still, shares finished the session at A$6.63.
Oil’s surge carried another signal on March 17. Australia’s central bank lifted its cash rate 25 basis points—to 4.1%—after a tight 5-4 split, citing the inflation threat from war-fueled energy costs. Commonwealth Bank economist Belinda Allen pointed out that local data alone made the case for a hike, with the Iran conflict now layering on extra inflation risk.
Santos is pushing for investors to focus on its company narrative rather than just big-picture trends. Back on March 9, the firm signed off on the A$357 million Moomba Central Optimisation project with Beach Energy. The company says the move should rack up over $600 million in capital and operating savings across the lifetime of the Cooper Basin’s Central Fields, plus shave up to $3 per barrel of oil equivalent from unit production costs—a metric that blends oil and gas output.
Gas markets are feeling their own squeeze. Earlier this month, Reuters noted there’s little room for Australian liquefied natural gas — LNG, the supercooled fuel shipped abroad — to fill the gap from missing Qatari cargoes. “There is no massive capacity on the sidelines,” Rapidan Energy Group’s Alex Munton told Reuters. MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic echoed that, saying there’s “almost no scope” to ramp up Australian LNG in any hurry. Reuters
So for Santos, it’s mostly coming down to pricing and execution now. The company confirmed its first Barossa cargo has shipped out from Darwin LNG. Back in January, Reuters noted that Pikka phase 1 was 98% finished, with first oil still on track for late Q1 2026.
Woodside back in January signaled a drop in 2026 production, despite topping revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter. Beach, meanwhile, has its fortunes hitched to Santos via the Moomba work program. So among the local energy names, Santos stands out with arguably the most straightforward near-term execution story.
Still, risks linger. Santos flagged in January that Pikka phase 1 capex was up $200 million, citing pricier labour and materials. Then in February, Barossa’s ramp hit a technical snag, slowing progress. Should oil prices slip or fresh delays emerge, the stock’s recent stability might not last.
Right now, the picture’s straightforward: Brent tops $100 again, the RBA is responding directly to the inflation spike, and Santos looks nearer to new production gains than it did just three months back. Share price moves aren’t just tracking oil anymore—investors are watching for management to actually convert this stretch into cash flow.
