LONDON, March 18, 2026, 13:13 GMT
BP PLC shares slipped up to 554.3 pence in London on Wednesday, adding roughly 0.4% for the session and hovering near their 52-week peak. Brent crude has managed to stay above $100 a barrel for the fourth session running, with oil prices still swinging on anxiety over persistent supply risks in the Middle East. 1
The timing is straightforward. Investors are weighing BP as both a winner from stronger oil prices and as a firm with notable risk tied to the Middle East—the very region behind the recent turmoil. According to Reuters calculations, roughly 22% of BP’s oil and gas production for 2025 is linked to the Middle East, including Egypt. That’s compared to about 11% for Shell, and 34% for TotalEnergies. 2
Brent crude pushed up 0.6% to $104.02 as of 1155 GMT, but U.S. benchmark WTI slipped 1.3% to $94.93. The price gap, said Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, signals disruption is showing up more in Brent than in U.S.-centric WTI. 3
That’s part of what fueled the action on Tuesday. “The risks remain stark,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, cautioning that just one missile or mine hitting a tanker could flare things up again. BP and Shell each added nearly 2%, sending London’s energy index to a record. 4
BP’s got its own risk factor on the table. The company announced Tuesday it plans to lock out roughly 800 employees at the 440,000-barrel-a-day Whiting refinery in Indiana starting March 19, following a breakdown in contract negotiations. Any disruption could squeeze U.S. gasoline and diesel stocks further. 5
More concrete updates surfaced earlier this week. BP announced Monday that Azule Energy, its joint venture in Angola, kicked off gas production at the Quiluma field. That marks Angola’s first project producing non-associated gas—meaning there’s no major crude component. Initial output should hit 150 million standard cubic feet per day, and management expects that figure to climb to 330 million by the close of 2026. 6
Market sentiment has turned more mixed compared to yesterday. London’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.3% by 1044 GMT, with softer oil prices taking some pressure off. Still, energy shares slipped 0.6% after hitting a record on Tuesday as traders waited on the Federal Reserve. 7
BP shareholders face a tricky split right now. Bank of America and Standard Chartered both bumped up their Brent outlooks for 2026 this week, yet BofA’s update highlights two possible outcomes: either flows resume soon and Brent dives to near $70, or supply snarls drag on, pushing prices up well into the second quarter. 8
There’s still a clear soft spot in the rally. Oil majors haven’t matched crude’s surge, Reuters reported last week, as equity traders keep wagering the Strait of Hormuz shutdown won’t last. James West, who heads energy and power research at Melius Research, said the market expects the closure to end soon, taking oil prices closer to normal levels. 9
