Sydney, March 20, 2026, 09:03 AEDT
- CBA closed Thursday at A$177.36, up 0.15%, even as the S&P/ASX 200 fell about 1.7% to a four-month low. 1
- The stock is still drawing support from record half-year earnings and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move to a 4.1% cash rate. 2
- Valuation remains a risk: Reuters stock analysis lists CBA as Underperform based on 14 analyst ratings. 3
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares ended Thursday up 0.15% at A$177.36, extending a four-session rise while the S&P/ASX 200 slid about 1.7% to a four-month low. The close left CBA roughly 7% below its 52-week high of A$191.40 set on June 25, 2025. 1
That matters now because investors keep reaching for the major banks even as the broader market buckles under rising oil prices and inflation fear. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate, the benchmark interest rate, to 4.1% on March 17 in a 5-4 vote, adding to the sense that borrowing costs could stay high for longer. 4
CBA still has a fresh earnings tailwind. In February the bank reported record first-half cash net profit of A$5.45 billion, lifted the interim dividend to A$2.35 a share and grew faster in home and business lending. Chief Executive Matt Comyn said “household consumption has risen”, and Atlas Funds Management analyst Michael Haynes pointed to “growth in the business bank” as the standout. CBA also said it was taking business-banking share from NAB and ANZ. 2
The rerating is not just about one name. NAB shares hit a record high after first-quarter cash earnings in February, Westpac touched a record after quarterly profit, and ANZ also reached a record after a jump in cash profit, showing how hard investors have leaned into Australia’s Big Four lenders this earnings season. 5
Before the RBA moved, CBA economist Belinda Allen said “the balance of probabilities has shifted” toward rate hikes in March and May. Thursday’s labour report did little to close that debate: Australia added 48,900 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate still rose to 4.3%, keeping markets alert to more tightening. 6
But higher rates do not make CBA a one-way trade. Net interest margin — the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — slipped to 2.04% in the half year, down 4 basis points. Reuters stock analysis shows CBA carried an Underperform recommendation from 14 analysts as of March 5. 7
The wider backdrop could get worse, not better. The IMF said a prolonged rise in energy costs could push up inflation and cut growth, while Goldman Sachs warned a drawn-out disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could become one of the largest supply shocks in recent history. 8
For now, investors are still paying up for CBA’s relative safety in a weak tape. That trade has worked this week. It also leaves less room for error if valuation starts to bite or the oil shock hits households harder. 1
