NEW YORK, March 20, 2026, 19:24 EDT
BHP Group’s U.S. shares slipped roughly 3.2% late Friday, settling at $65.29. Earlier, the stock dropped 1.8% in Australia to close at A$47.49. The ASX 200 touched a four-month low as mining names retreated, pressured by concerns around oil prices and interest rates. 1
Investors are shifting their view on BHP only days after the company tapped Brandon Craig as its incoming chief executive. Craig has stressed his attention is on organic growth—building out projects within BHP’s current portfolio. Any acquisition, he said, would need to be “incredibly compelling.” 2
It’s a tangled situation. Last week, China expanded curbs on certain BHP iron ore shipments at its ports, with annual supply negotiations dragging on between BHP and China Mineral Resources Group. Elsewhere, Reuters reported Australian miners are now dealing with a diesel crunch after China blocked fuel exports and conflict-linked snags hit supply lines. CLSA’s Baden Moore put it bluntly: the country relies “entirely” on imported refined fuel. 3
Most analysts see Craig’s appointment as a sign things won’t change much. “Super impressive,” was how Andy Forster at Argo Investments described the new chief. Barrenjoey’s Glyn Lawcock pointed to the “cupboard full of options” Mike Henry leaves behind, crediting him for BHP’s rebuilt copper pipeline. 4
Yet the move hasn’t ended questions swirling around the issue. On Friday, Reuters said BHP’s choice of Craig—passing over top female candidates—reopened the minefield of diversity in upper management and stirred fresh worries about potentially losing disillusioned executives. 5
Competition is heating up. On Friday, Rio Tinto—BHP’s nearest rival in Australia—announced it had temporarily closed two bauxite mines in Queensland after Tropical Cyclone Narelle swept through. Shares in Rio dropped as much as 4%, Reuters reported, underscoring how weather and operational disruptions are hitting mining valuations directly. 6
Long-term holders still have reasons to stick with BHP. Last month, the miner posted a 22% jump in first-half profit. For the first time, copper accounted for 51% of operating earnings. The company is keeping its sights on copper, iron ore, potash—which is used in fertilizer—and coal. 7
The demand side has its own issues. Reuters said Thursday that China’s robust iron ore imports early in 2026 have mostly headed into storage, not steelmaking—a signal that mill demand is still sluggish, despite rising port inventories. 8
The immediate worry is straightforward: oil prices stay elevated, the whole trade faces headwinds. Goldman Sachs flagged upside risks for crude all the way out to 2027 just this week. On Friday, Reuters noted global equities dropped as investors prepared for stickier inflation and tighter policy if the conflict continues. For BHP, the risks pile up—costlier fuel, pricier freight, pressure on Chinese appetite, and a market less eager to pay up for copper’s long-term story. 9
