Sydney—March 23, 2026, 02:58 AEDT.
National Australia Bank dropped 2.25% to finish Friday at A$45.57, underperforming its major banking rivals while the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% to 8,428.40, the lowest level in four months. LSEG figures showed Westpac fell 1.05%, ANZ slipped 1.13%, and Commonwealth Bank lost 0.97%.
This is notable: NAB shares had hovered just below all-time highs after the February update. The bank reported first-quarter cash earnings, its chosen metric, up 16% at A$2.02 billion. After Friday’s session, the stock closed about 5% off the A$47.96 peak set on Feb. 18.
The decline mirrored broader market action, not sparked by any company results. On Friday, a market report noted Australian shares finished the week touching a four-month low, with the Iran war pushing up oil prices and investors considering the possibility of further Reserve Bank of Australia tightening.
The Reserve Bank of Australia bumped its cash rate up to 4.10% on March 17, squeaking by on a 5-4 decision—the narrowest margin since tally disclosures began. “The domestic data flow alone justified a rate hike today,” said Belinda Allen, Commonwealth Bank’s Australian economics chief. Over at Westpac, chief economist Luci Ellis pointed to the Middle East conflict as the key variable for any future hikes. Reuters
On Friday, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that traders are factoring in 67 basis points—0.67 percentage point—of additional RBA tightening through the remainder of 2026, plus 18 basis points already priced for May. For bank shares, it’s a tricky setup: higher rates offer a lift to lending margins, but they also risk slowing credit demand and increasing pressure on borrowers.
NAB’s February numbers gave it a fleeting edge in the sector. Business-banking volumes were up 7%, with housing loan volumes advancing 5%. Competition hasn’t let up—Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are still pushing hard, and both Westpac and ANZ came in ahead of first-quarter profit forecasts this earnings season.
There’s fresh concern the macro squeeze could intensify. Brent wrapped up Friday at $112.19 a barrel, according to an oil market update on Sunday, and the price might push higher once trading kicks off again. Sycamore tagged the standoff as a “48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets”. AMP’s Shane Oliver warned both global and Australian equities face “high risk of further falls in the near term” if the conflict keeps going. Reuters
One factor tempering the gloom: Energy Minister Chris Bowen on Sunday ruled out any immediate fuel rationing, noting Australia still holds 38 days’ supply of petrol and 30 days for both diesel and jet fuel—even after six shipments from Asia were scrapped. NAB investors now turn to Wednesday, with February’s CPI data in focus. IG reckons that print will heavily influence rate bets ahead of the May RBA meeting; a hot read would keep the squeeze on banks.
