NEW YORK, March 23, 2026, 16:44 EDT
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil forecasts, arguing that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and more strategic stockpiling, or emergency buying for reserves, will keep the market tight even after crude slumped on hopes of U.S.-Iran talks. The bank lifted its average Brent crude view to $85 a barrel from $77 and its West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $79 from $72. 1
The call matters because the market’s sharp reversal has not cleared the supply shock underneath it. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, flows, and Asia is especially exposed because it relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its oil imports. 2
Goldman said Brent should still average $110 in March and April, up from a prior $98, as traders keep adding a larger risk premium, the extra price they demand when supply looks unsafe. In its risk case, the bank said oil could briefly hit $135 a barrel if Hormuz flows stay severely disrupted for 10 weeks and Middle East production losses persist at 2 million barrels per day. 1
Before Monday’s selloff, Brent had settled Friday at $112.19, its highest since July 2022, after President Donald Trump gave Iran 48 hours to fully reopen Hormuz and threatened to hit Iranian power plants if it did not. Tehran answered that it would target Gulf energy sites and water plants that turn seawater into drinking water, while IG analyst Tony Sycamore warned the threat had created a “48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets.” 3
Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen said the latest U.S. move looked less like de-escalation than a bid to force Tehran’s hand, and warned the market was wrong to assume Iran would simply back down. That helps explain why banks are still lifting year-ahead forecasts even after near-term oil prices fell sharply. 3
But the bullish case could unravel fast if diplomacy sticks. Brent settled down 10.9% at $99.94 on Monday and WTI lost 10.3% to $88.13 after Trump said the United States would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants for five days and cited talks with Tehran, though Iran denied any negotiations; Goldman itself said an end to U.S. military action could quickly strip away the risk premium. 2
Still, oil executives are not treating Monday’s drop as a clean turn. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said disruption lasting beyond three to four months would pose a systemic risk to the global economy, and added the squeeze in fuels such as diesel and jet may prove worse than the crude shock because China’s export ban has tightened Southeast Asian supply. 4
ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber struck a similar note at CERAWeek in Houston. “Energy security is not just a slogan,” he said. “It’s the difference between lights on and lights off.” 5
Policy relief may be thinner than traders hoped. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC a new release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country’s emergency crude stockpile, was “highly unlikely,” even as the International Energy Agency said it was consulting governments about further stock releases and warned the Hormuz shock was worse than the oil crises of the 1970s. 6
Goldman is not alone. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 a barrel on March 13, while Bank of America and Standard Chartered lifted theirs three days later as the Hormuz shutdown dragged on. 7
For now, the market is trading two stories at once: a diplomatic headline that can knock $10 off a barrel in a day, and a physical supply crunch that has not been fixed. Goldman’s bet is that the second story will outlast the first. 2
