LONDON, March 24, 2026, 12:31 GMT
BP bounced back in London trading Tuesday, up roughly 1.5% at 546 pence, after Brent crude pushed past $100 a barrel. On Monday, shares had slumped 4.21%, ending at 538.6 pence. Oil prices reversed course as Iran rejected U.S. statements about possible negotiations to halt the Gulf war. “The reality on the ground is unchanged,” said Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. 1
That’s significant: BP draws roughly 22% of its total output—about 503,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day—from the Middle East in 2025, a region now at the center of the latest oil shock. The company doesn’t operate any refineries in the area, but relies on this oil-and-gas production metric. 2
That kind of sensitivity isn’t just BP’s problem, but it’s especially relevant at this point. Shell dropped 4.2% Monday, tracking crude lower after Donald Trump halted planned U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants—a sharp signal that even a suggestion of de-escalation can strip away support for Europe’s oil majors in a hurry. 3
European investors spent Tuesday adjusting to the prospect of a longer-lasting oil shock. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, pointed out that the markets hadn’t factored in the potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—vital for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil shipments. 4
The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% in London as of 1039 GMT, despite a 0.8% gain in UK energy stocks. Oil names bucked the broader trend, lifted by crude’s move back above $100. 5
Investors have more to chew on with BP. The energy giant’s sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany to Klesch Group last week raised its 2027 cost-cutting target to $6.5 billion-$7.5 billion, moving total divestments beyond $11 billion. Meg O’Neill is still on deck to step in as CEO this April. 6
Labor tensions are in the mix, too. The United Steelworkers blasted BP’s move to lock out close to 800 staff from its Whiting refinery in Indiana—America’s largest in the Midwest, with a 440,000-barrel-a-day capacity—as “unacceptable and unlawful.” BP countered, saying it has bargained in good faith and plans to keep negotiating, adding it does not see any impact on output. 7
BP’s approach to shareholder returns doesn’t stack up against some peers. Last month, the company put its $750 million quarterly buyback on ice, opting instead to use cash for bringing net debt down to $22 billion. Shell and Exxon, by contrast, stuck to their repurchase programs. 8
Still, there’s a clear risk to this rebound. Goldman Sachs sees Brent averaging $110 a barrel in March and April, but cautioned that if U.S. military operations wind down, the war premium could vanish fast. BP shares? They’d just settled at 583.2 pence on March 19, only to slip again. 9
