LONDON, March 28, 2026, 20:09 GMT
NatWest Group shares added 0.9% on Friday, climbing to roughly 540 pence, after Deutsche Bank bumped its price target up to 840 pence from 730 pence, arguing the lender had been “unfairly derated”. That uptick cut through a lukewarm London session, as the FTSE 100 slipped 0.05%. Reuters
This is significant: NatWest faces its first-quarter earnings on May 1, with investors watching closely to see how resilient its UK-centric model really is if British borrower conditions deteriorate. The bank, which leans heavily on retail, commercial, and private banking in the UK, tends to feel movements in mortgage strain, deposit costs, and credit quality almost immediately.
The pressure ramped up this week. Chancellor Rachel Reeves sat down with executives from NatWest, Lloyds, HSBC, Barclays, Santander, and Nationwide. According to the Treasury, banks are now set to reach out to 1.6 million borrowers whose fixed-rate terms expire before the year wraps up. Officials highlighted the Mortgage Charter, which allows borrowers to lock in new rates up to six months ahead or switch to interest-only payments for half a year. Around 86% of UK mortgages remain on fixed rates, the Treasury noted.
NatWest continued its capital returns, according to a Friday filing. The bank repurchased shares via UBS throughout the week on the London Stock Exchange, CHIX, and BATE, and will cancel those shares. After settlement, 195.1 million shares remain in treasury.
Capital Group trimmed its stake in NatWest, dropping voting rights to 4.991397% from 5.005597%, according to a Thursday filing. That keeps the holding just below the 5% threshold requiring disclosure.
Shareholders have already seen NatWest step things up this year. Back in February, the bank posted a 24% jump in 2025 pretax profit to 7.7 billion pounds, raised its 2028 return on tangible equity target above 18%, and rolled out a 750 million pound buyback for 2026. Just days before, NatWest agreed to purchase Evelyn Partners, a wealth manager, for 2.7 billion pounds including debt—their largest acquisition since that 2008 bailout. Over at Barclays and Lloyds, profitability targets were getting a lift as well. “We are raising our ambition and sharpening our strategic focus,” CEO Paul Thwaite said at the time. Reuters
On March 16, Morningstar analyst Niklas Kammer bumped his fair value estimate for NatWest to 710 pence, calling it the “most attractive UK bank” in his group. That view, he said, leans on a beefier structural hedge—essentially locking in returns from stable deposits. But Kammer flagged the Evelyn acquisition as an execution risk. Morningstar, Inc.
Still, it’s not all moving in one direction. Earlier this week, Reuters noted that the average two-year fixed mortgage rate has surged to 5.51%—up from 4.83%—since the Iran conflict erupted. Official projections point out that Britain’s reliance on fixed-rate deals just delays, rather than protects against, the impact of higher borrowing costs. Should energy-fueled inflation keep rates up for longer than expected, NatWest’s UK-centric strategy might start to look less like safety and more like a risk.
