HONG KONG, March 29, 2026, 18:15 HKT
Agricultural Bank of China heads into its Monday results as investors eye the sector, following near-flat earnings from three major Chinese banks last Friday. Shares in the bank’s Hong Kong unit last closed at HK$5.38, a 0.56% gain, ahead of a board meeting set to sign off on the 2025 figures and consider the final dividend. 1
The reason this matters right now is simple enough. Agricultural Bank is among the last major state-run lenders yet to post results, and earlier this week Reuters, citing LSEG data, noted that analysts are looking for net profit growth of just 2.3% in 2025—a step down from last year. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications have already set a muted backdrop. 2
One more wrinkle: Reuters reported this week that China is weighing changes to shareholding limits, potentially opening the door for some investors to own 5% or more in an extra one or two banks. The idea—broaden capital sources for lenders still dealing with property woes and lackluster growth. Both Citi and JPMorgan called it a plus for Chinese banks. Mainland bank shares in Hong Kong climbed Friday after Reuters published the story. 3
So, for backers of Agricultural Bank, it boils down to this: will their numbers top the first batch? China Construction Bank’s 2025 net profit nudged up 1% to 338.9 billion yuan. ICBC barely edged higher, with less than 1% growth, and Bank of Communications managed a 2.2% gain, according to Reuters. 4
Net interest margin—NIM for short—remains the key swing factor, basically tracking the difference between what banks make on loans versus what they pay out on deposits. Zhang Yiwei at China Galaxy Securities called deposit repricing “the main driver” behind the expected 2026 earnings recovery for banks. S&P Global Ratings’ Ming Tan also points out that “margin pressure to alleviate” as banks cycle out of those high-cost deposits. 2
About 54 trillion yuan in time deposits at listed banks are set to mature in 2026, according to Reuters. If rollover rates fall, net interest margins could rise by around 12 basis points—0.12 percentage point. That bump, though, won’t come quickly; profitability has already slumped to historic lows after years of interest rate cuts and sluggish credit demand. 2
Peer numbers out Friday handed investors plenty to chew on. CCB’s net interest margin narrowed to 1.34% from 1.36% at September’s close, but its non-performing loan ratio dipped to 1.31%. Bank of Communications saw its bad-loan ratio rise a touch, landing at 1.28%, according to Reuters. 4
Agricultural Bank says its board plans to sign off on the 2025 results this Monday and will weigh a final dividend at the same meeting. The bank has a webcast lined up from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. Hong Kong time—President Wang Zhiheng, along with senior managers and independent directors, are set to join. 5
Risk hasn’t disappeared. Nicholas Zhu, a banking analyst at Moody’s, warned that if Middle East tensions drag on, the resulting “more challenging operating environment” could push up asset risks for Chinese banks. The property slump hasn’t hit bottom yet either, according to Reuters, with home prices still trending lower. 6
Investors are already shifting focus beyond Friday’s finish, watching Monday’s call for signals. Key points: will Agricultural Bank echo ICBC Vice President Yao Mingde’s take that margins “contract at a slower pace”? Markets will also be tuned in for any fresh insight from management on dividends and asset quality. 6
