NEW YORK, March 30, 2026, 15:07 EDT
Stocks bounced Monday, with the Dow adding 324 points by 11:31 a.m. ET and the S&P 500 up 0.31%. The Nasdaq, barely positive at 0.05% higher, and the Dow both remained in correction territory—a 10% drop from recent highs—under pressure as investors tracked oil above $100 and focused on the escalating Middle East conflict around Iran. Brent crude hovered at $112.94 a barrel.
The bounce didn’t fix the underlying issue. Brent crude has surged nearly 60% in March—the sharpest monthly gain ever logged—while government bond prices worldwide are staring at the steepest monthly drop seen in years. Markets have also abandoned previous expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.
The strain isn’t limited to equities. According to Reuters, March saw bid-ask spreads on fresh two-year Treasuries balloon by about 27%, while liquidity in certain European rate-futures slumped to just 10% of usual levels. “When we try to trade, it takes longer to trade,” said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management. Reuters
Traders faced whiplash from weekend news. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed talks were underway with what he called a “more reasonable regime” in Iran, but in the same breath, he threatened fresh strikes on energy facilities unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz—the route for nearly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi militia jumped into the conflict. Investors are growing weary of these rapid pivots between hopeful signals and tough warnings. Reuters
Too late to reverse course. The Dow dropped 1.7% Friday, pushing it into a confirmed correction—now 10% off its Feb. 10 record close. The Nasdaq crossed into correction territory the previous day. As for the S&P 500, last week’s finish left it 8.7% under its January peak.
Investors stuck with oil plays, bidding up Exxon Mobil by 2.1% and Chevron by 1.3%, even as they dumped growth names. Apple and Broadcom dragged tech lower, sending the semiconductor index to its weakest point in three months. “It’s the sense that there’s negotiations going on and if that’s the case, there may be some resolution,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, calling it the sort of relief rally that oversold markets latch onto when any hint of good news surfaces. Reuters
Morgan Stanley is dialing back its bullish stance, moving global equities to “equal weight” from “overweight” and bumping up allocations to cash and U.S. Treasuries. According to the bank, money has increasingly shifted into U.S. stocks and bonds since the conflict erupted. Michael Wilson and his team point to “growing evidence” that the S&P 500’s correction could be nearing its end—as long as a recession or more Fed hikes don’t materialize. Reuters
The rebound remains shaky. JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman flagged that if turmoil in Hormuz drags on for another month, oil could hover close to $150 a barrel. Morgan Stanley, for its part, sees $150-$180 crude slashing global equity valuations by nearly 25%. U.S. labor numbers hit this week. Powell noted that longer-term inflation expectations look anchored for now, and said the Fed doesn’t need to make a call yet on how to handle the energy shock.
