Sydney, March 31, 2026, 09:03 AEDT
Macquarie Group Ltd’s call that oil might reach $200 a barrel came under the spotlight Tuesday, as U.S. crude closed above $100 for the first time since 2022 and Brent approached a record monthly surge with the Iran conflict escalating. What was once seen as an outlier prediction suddenly landed in the market’s mainstream chatter. 1
Oil’s recent spike is stoking fresh inflation jitters and pushing worries about economic fallout, all while dealmakers are staring down heightened war risk in the Gulf. Already, Macquarie pulled out of the race for a Kuwait oil pipeline stake—a sign the conflict is hitting deals, not just pricing. 2
Australian analysts see oil dropping fast if the war winds down soon, but don’t expect a return to pre-conflict prices. If the fighting drags on through the end of June, though, they warn crude could spike to $200 a barrel. 1
Brent closed at $112.78 a barrel on Monday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate finishing higher at $102.88—a level not seen since July 2022—after Yemen’s Houthis expanded the conflict by striking Israel. The Strait of Hormuz, a slim channel wedged between Iran and Oman and a crucial route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas, remains the key flashpoint. 2
StoneX analyst Alex Hodes notes that for investors, it’s the perceived duration of the war that matters—not the latest headlines. Traders showed little reaction to diplomatic overtures. SEB Research echoed that sentiment, saying markets want to see real evidence of de-escalation, not “just rhetoric.” 1
Macquarie operates across asset management, banking, commodities, and advisory, with its Commodities and Global Markets division in the mix. Back in February, Chief Executive Shemara Wikramanayake described third-quarter trading as “satisfactory,” noting the unit turned in better results than a year earlier. 3
On March 18, Reuters said Macquarie dropped out of the race for a stake in Kuwait’s oil pipeline network—an asset valued as high as $7 billion—making it one of the earliest investors to walk away from a Gulf deal due to the war. BlackRock and KKR had also been cited as interested parties, but Reuters couldn’t confirm if either remained involved. 4
Martin Bradley, who heads infrastructure for EMEA at Macquarie, said the group “will continue to be committed to the region,” despite pulling out of the pipeline process. On the advisory side, KPMG’s Anshul Gupta noted some clients are taking “a little more time” to wrap up deals, with airstrikes and financing risks muddying asset values. 4
There’s a defensive tone creeping in from other corners of the market. Robert Yawger at Mizuho flagged that a Red Sea shipping halt could tack on “$5 to $10 per barrel.” DBS’s Suvro Sarkar added that as long as Hormuz flows are disrupted, every Asian economy is set to “feel the pinch.” 2
Still, Macquarie’s boldest scenario hinges on the conflict dragging out and major shipping lanes staying closed for weeks or months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking Monday, pointed to steady market supply and noted more ships getting through Hormuz. G7 finance chiefs meanwhile pledged to take “all necessary measures” to keep energy markets stable. Traders have their sights set on an April 6 U.S. deadline involving Iran’s energy infrastructure. 2
