LONDON, March 31, 2026, 14:25 BST
Airlines across Europe and Asia pushed through fare hikes and capacity cuts on Tuesday as Brussels warned jet fuel had become the fuel market most exposed to the Iran war and Korean Air prepared to switch into emergency mode from April. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index stood at $4.62 a gallon for March 30, while Brent crude traded around $115.50 on Tuesday, keeping pressure on carriers already reworking summer schedules. 1
The timing matters. The northern summer booking push is starting just as the last cargoes of kerosene — the refined fuel used by jets — that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before its closure are due to reach Europe around April 10, leaving airlines and refiners scrambling for replacement barrels. 1
Fares are already reacting. Bloomberg reported on March 26 that ticket prices on major Asia-Europe routes had jumped as much as 560% this month, citing Alton Aviation Consultancy, while the International Air Transport Association said the global average jet fuel price was still $195.19 a barrel last week. 2
Cathay Pacific said it is sticking with plans to expand passenger capacity by 10% this year, but Chief Executive Ronald Lam told Reuters that could change if fuel stays near twice pre-conflict levels and demand softens. From Wednesday, a Sydney-London return trip will carry an $800 fuel surcharge after Cathay raised charges twice this month. 3
United Airlines has already trimmed about five percentage points of planned capacity this year as it models oil as high as $175 a barrel and above $100 through 2027. Scott Kirby has also said fares may need to rise 20% to cover higher fuel costs, a sign of how fast the shock is moving from fuel desks to ticket pricing. 4
“Airlines face an existential challenge,” Rigas Doganis, chair of Airline Management Group, told Reuters. Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg said the quickest lever carriers have is to cut capacity so prices can rise; the problem, he suggested, is that higher fuel bills on the ground can start to choke off demand in the air. 5
Korean Air, meanwhile, told staff it will move into emergency management in April, with fuel costs expected at about 450 U.S. cents a gallon against 220 cents in its business plan. Surcharges on routes from Incheon to New York and Chicago are set to rise more than 200%, while the London and Paris routes face increases of nearly 250%, its website showed. 6
Brussels is trying to stop the price spike from turning into a supply crunch. EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen urged governments to defer non-emergency refinery maintenance and avoid measures that would disrupt trade in refined products; Europe gets about 15% of its kerosene directly from the Middle East, and its real exposure is larger because it also imports fuel from Indian refineries that process Gulf crude. 1
Still, the downside case is not straightforward. Benedict George of Argus Media said there was “no realistic risk” Europe would outright run out of jet fuel because stockpiles can cover up to three months of demand, though he warned of local shortages and volatile prices. In China, HSBC analysts said aggressive fuel surcharges could become self-defeating if travelers shift to high-speed rail. 1
Oil markets are not offering much relief. Reuters’ monthly poll showed analysts lifted their 2026 Brent forecast by 30% to $82.85 a barrel, the sharpest increase in the survey’s records, while some warned prices could move toward 2008 highs or even $190 if Hormuz stays shut much longer. For travelers, that leaves fewer cheap seats, more route pruning and little reason to expect long-haul fares to retreat soon. 7
