LONDON, March 31, 2026, 14:25 BST
Airlines in Europe and Asia moved quickly on Tuesday, raising fares and scaling back flights after Brussels flagged jet fuel as the most vulnerable part of the fuel market due to the Iran war. Korean Air said it would switch to emergency mode starting in April. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index hit $4.62 a gallon for March 30, with Brent crude hovering near $115.50, adding to the squeeze on carriers scrambling to rework summer routes.
Timing is tight. Europe’s last shipments of jet-grade kerosene that cleared the Strait of Hormuz before the waterway closed are expected to land by April 10—right as the northern summer travel rush begins. Airlines and refiners are now hustling to line up alternative supplies.
Ticket prices on some major Asia-Europe routes have soared up to 560% this month, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy data cited by Bloomberg on March 26. At the same time, the International Air Transport Association put last week’s global average jet fuel price at $195.19 a barrel.
Cathay Pacific is holding to its target of boosting passenger capacity by 10% this year. Still, Chief Executive Ronald Lam told Reuters that plan isn’t locked in—if jet fuel prices hover at roughly double pre-conflict rates and demand drops off, the airline could rethink the increase. Starting Wednesday, flying round-trip between Sydney and London gets pricier: Cathay will slap on an $800 fuel surcharge following two rate hikes this month.
United Airlines has cut roughly five percentage points from its scheduled capacity for this year, bracing for oil that could hit $175 a barrel—and stay above $100 until 2027. CEO Scott Kirby says ticket prices might need a 20% bump just to keep pace with surging fuel expenses, highlighting how quickly the spike is feeding through from the cost side to consumers.
“Airlines face an existential challenge,” Rigas Doganis, chair of Airline Management Group, said to Reuters. Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg pointed out that trimming capacity is the fastest tool airlines have to lift fares. But there’s a catch: pricier fuel on the ground can squeeze demand for tickets in the sky. Reuters
Korean Air has alerted employees to an emergency management shift starting in April, bracing for fuel prices to hit around 450 U.S. cents per gallon—double the 220 cents projected in its business plan. The carrier’s surcharges are jumping: more than 200% higher on flights from Incheon to New York and Chicago, and close to 250% increases for London and Paris, according to its website.
Brussels wants to head off a supply crunch before prices jump even further. EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen called on governments to hold off on non-essential refinery maintenance and steer clear of moves that might block refined fuel trade. Europe sources roughly 15% of its kerosene right from the Middle East, but the region’s actual dependence runs deeper—Indian refineries, which use Gulf crude, send finished fuel to European buyers as well.
Even so, the downside isn’t simple. Benedict George at Argus Media called any chance of Europe completely exhausting its jet fuel supply “no realistic risk,” pointing to stockpiles that would last as long as three months. Still, he flagged possible regional shortages and sharp price swings. Over in China, HSBC analysts noted that pushing fuel surcharges too far could backfire if passengers opt instead for high-speed rail. Reuters
Oil’s not cutting anyone a break. Analysts in Reuters’ monthly poll hiked their 2026 Brent call by a hefty 30% to $82.85 a barrel—the biggest jump the survey’s seen. A few are flagging the chance of prices creeping up to 2008 levels or even $190 if Hormuz remains blocked. For travelers, this means slim pickings on cheap flights, airlines trimming routes, and no real hope that long-haul ticket prices will drop any time soon.
