SYDNEY, April 1, 2026, 04:10 AEDT
The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.3% to finish at 8,481.80 on March’s final session. That late uptick wasn’t enough to offset the index’s sharpest monthly drop since June 2022, as surging oil—fueled by conflict—and renewed rate jitters kept investors on edge. 1
The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t hinting at easing anytime soon. March meeting minutes revealed that board members remained inclined toward further rate hikes, while flagging risks tied to a broader Middle East conflict. The bank cautioned that if oil prices hover close to $100 a barrel, headline inflation could jump to roughly 5% for the June quarter, up from 3.7% in February. 2
Monday laid it out: Financials tumbled 2.2%, hitting levels not seen since early February. All four major banks lost ground, sliding anywhere from 1.6% to 4.1%. Tech fared even worse, down 3.2% at the close—its weakest finish in three years. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis warned that a “longer disruption” in fuel supply might trigger additional rate hikes. Justin Lin at Global X ETFs flagged ongoing strain for banks and tech unless the Middle East situation eases soon. 3
But by Tuesday afternoon, things had calmed. IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted the index clawed back from an initial 50-point slide after crude prices pulled back over $4 from their session peak, nudging up beaten-down names like Westpac and tech stocks such as Xero and WiseTech. 4
Relief from households was nowhere to be found. ANZ-Roy Morgan’s consumer confidence index dropped to 58.8, hitting its lowest level since the survey began in 1973. The sharp downturn highlights just how much the oil shock and worries over rates are weighing on sentiment, despite a handful of buyers drifting back into equities. 5
Looking at sector performance for the month, the numbers turned ugly. Miners dropped as much as 1.6% early Tuesday, staring down a 14.9% plunge for March—the sharpest monthly drop they’ve seen since November 2015. Gold names weren’t spared either, tracking for their worst month since June 2013. Energy stocks went the other way, up to 1.2% higher during the session, and on pace to surge 21.1% this month as oil held above $100. 6
Australia wasn’t the only one feeling the heat. Reuters noted that Japan’s Nikkei was on track for a 12% drop in March—worst showing since 2008. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 pulled back 8% for the month. Still, some heavyweight locals are stepping in: Jimmy Louca, senior portfolio manager at Australian Retirement Trust, said the A$350 billion fund was trading “almost every day” as the selloff looked “still early and still going.” 7
Tuesday’s bump might just be some end-of-month bargain hunting, with little staying power. UBS strategist Richard Schellbach flagged that profit downgrades are looming—he singled out building materials, financials, and consumer services. If the energy shock drags on, he said, the ASX 200 could tumble another 20% from here, especially if a hard landing hits. 8
