SYDNEY, April 7, 2026, 03:11 AEST
The ASX reopens Tuesday after the four-day Easter pause, oil holding above $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz—handling about 20% of world energy shipments—front and center for investors. Local markets missed both Good Friday and Easter Monday sessions, during which Wall Street managed a mild uptick. Sydney traders now have to catch up on multiple offshore shifts all at once. 1
This comes after the S&P/ASX 200 closed down 1.06% at 8,579.50 on Thursday, just before the holiday pause froze local trades. With Australia bringing in roughly 90% of its refined fuel, any lasting spike in crude tends to ripple through to higher transport costs—and that can feed straight into inflation and shape rate forecasts. 2
On Monday, Canberra moved to ease the latest supply worries. Energy Minister Chris Bowen reassured that Australia has contracted fuel deliveries lined up “well into May.” The percentage of service stations out of diesel dropped to 3.4%. Still, Bowen pressed for a prompt reopening of the Strait to avoid further economic fallout. 3
Stocks aren’t moving in lockstep here. Oil above $100? That’s a tailwind for names like Woodside and Santos. Miners—Fortescue in particular—feel the squeeze on the flip side. Fortescue metals chief Dino Otranto noted back in March that a 10-cent bump in diesel means an extra $70 million in costs for the company. 4
Banks are likely to stay in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting minutes showed the board raised the cash rate—its key policy rate—by 25 basis points to 4.1%. But the outlook is murky, with officials citing uncertainty, especially as a prolonged Middle East conflict threatens both inflation and economic growth. As of this day, traders are giving about 60% odds to another hike in May. 5
Russel Chesler, who leads investments and capital markets at VanEck, said February’s inflation numbers were already out of date, with rising energy prices poised to push up costs across transport, goods, and services. On Monday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon echoed the sentiment, warning that oil and commodity disruptions tied to the Iran war risk keeping both inflation and rates above what investors are hoping for. 6
Signs of caution are showing up in trading volumes. Late last month, ASX reported its futures market was heading for a record month, with investors moving quickly to hedge against swings in rates and energy prices. “Geopolitical risk and rate uncertainty are translating straight into heavier trading and hedging,” said Ben Jackson, the exchange’s general manager for market operations.
Another matter hits home for the ASX. Last week, ASIC accused the exchange operator of putting shareholder returns ahead of the market’s backbone, following a 10-month probe into governance and tech mishaps. Chair David Clarke said capital spending is on the rise and efforts are underway to make the infrastructure “resilient and robust.” 7
The next catalyst might still emerge offshore. Iran shot down a proposed temporary ceasefire on Monday, and President Donald Trump insists his Tuesday deadline to reopen Hormuz stands. A calmer resolution could take some heat out of crude and trim Australian inflation risks. But if tensions spike again, the ASX will likely fall straight back into the oil-and-rates playbook that spurred March’s record hedging. 8
