London, April 22, 2026, 20:15 BST
- On April 21, Imperial Brands snapped up 190,000 shares, continuing work under its £1.45 billion buyback plan.
- The stock slipped that day, adding to the pressure sparked by last week’s warning about losing ground in crucial tobacco markets.
- Eyes are on the May 12 half-year numbers, with investors scanning for clues that profit gains in the second half will be enough to hit the group’s full-year targets.
Imperial Brands PLC kept its buyback wheels turning this week, snapping up 190,000 ordinary shares for cancellation on April 21—despite fresh selling pressure hitting the tobacco group’s London-listed stock. The Bristol-based company, behind Winston, Davidoff and Gauloises, paid an average price of 2,758.2776 pence per share, a regulatory filing showed.
Timing’s crucial here. Buybacks and dividends have long anchored the Imperial Brands investment story, but with market-share momentum lagging in core cigarette segments and growth slowing in smoking alternatives, investors are questioning if cash returns alone are enough to compensate.
Imperial dropped 2.29% Tuesday to £27.34, lagging the FTSE 100, according to MarketWatch data. Last week’s heavier slide came after the company predicted a slight overall loss of market share in its five largest markets for the first half.
Imperial stuck with its full-year forecast. The company is still projecting low-single-digit tobacco revenue growth and double-digit gains for its next-generation lineup — think vapes, heated tobacco, nicotine pouches. Group adjusted operating profit should rise 3% to 5%, based on the company’s preferred metric that excludes certain items. Free cash flow? Imperial said to expect at least £2.2 billion after covering operational and investment costs.
The company’s H1 performance isn’t matching up to its full-year goals yet. Imperial expects group adjusted operating profit to edge up just a little from last year, with most of the gains coming later. FX translation is set to knock 2.0% to 2.5% off first-half EPS as overseas revenues shrink when converted to pounds.
Derren Nathan at Hargreaves Lansdown called it a “slow but steady start,” noting that hitting full-year profit growth remains possible—if momentum picks up as the year goes on. Still, he pointed out that deeper losses in next-generation products and eroding market share have left investors feeling “underwhelmed.” Hargreaves Lansdown
Imperial counts the United States, Germany, the UK, Spain, and Australia as its biggest markets. According to Reuters last week, the company is shifting gears to focus on profitability rather than chasing volume, a strategy that could see it surrender some market share in those countries. Imperial is banking on higher prices and tighter cost controls to keep earnings intact.
It’s a tricky balance. British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International have poured money into premium brands and next-generation nicotine products. Imperial, by contrast, tends to play the lower-cost game. The industry faces shrinking cigarette demand and must keep regulators in mind as it pushes new products.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, pointed out that Chief Executive Lukas Paravicini “knows this only too well” while steering Imperial’s second five-year plan. According to Mould, investors were rattled by remarks on market share and a disappointing pace for next-generation product growth, despite Imperial reaffirming its guidance. AJ Bell
Imperial’s buyback hands the company a straightforward way to bolster the stock in the short run. This latest leg drops the outstanding share count to 779.1 million, not counting shares held in treasury, as part of the £1.45 billion repurchase plan first rolled out in October. As of March 31, Imperial had already finished £0.7 billion of that total, the company disclosed last week.
The second half may not live up to the expectations now set for it. Imperial has pointed to uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict—so far, no direct hit to business, but the company says pressure could build. In the U.S., its nicotine pouch business is up against tougher promotional activity. Separately, Imperial paid R.J. Reynolds $200 million in the first half after a Delaware Supreme Court ruling, with another $234 million still to come, split evenly over the next three years.
Morningstar’s Kristoffer Inton offered a cooler take, noting the selloff has dragged the stock close to what he sees as an appealing level—suggesting the market could be bracing for “next to no growth.” Tobacco, he pointed out, still outweighs new nicotine products when it comes to Imperial’s valuation. Inton expects adjusted operating profit growth over five years to fall short of Imperial’s longer-term 3% to 5% target. Morningstar
Imperial steps up with its six-month results on May 12, covering the period through March 31. Eyes will be on whether pricing, buybacks, and cost savings can address worries about share losses. If they fall short, the market could shift focus to tougher scrutiny of the 2030 plan.
