LONDON, April 27, 2026, 13:02 BST
- BP shares rose with London energy stocks as Brent crude climbed near a three-week high.
- The company reports first-quarter results on Tuesday, with oil trading expected to be “exceptional.”
- Investors are also watching debt, cash tied up in working capital and the first results call since Meg O’Neill became CEO.
BP shares rose on Monday as investors looked toward first-quarter results due Tuesday, with the oil major set to benefit from a surge in crude prices and a strong trading performance during the Middle East supply shock.
The move matters now because BP is entering results day with two stories running at once: a possible earnings lift from volatile oil markets, and a balance-sheet strain that could limit how much of that benefit reaches shareholders. London’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% by 1005 GMT, while energy stocks led sector gains and BP and Shell both advanced about 1%.
BP said earlier this month that its first-quarter oil trading result was expected to be “exceptional,” while first-quarter group results are scheduled for April 28. It also guided for net debt to rise to $25 billion-$27 billion from $22.2 billion at the end of the previous quarter, mainly because of a $4 billion-$7 billion working capital build — cash temporarily tied up in items such as inventories and receivables. bp global
Oil gave the trade another push. Brent crude rose almost 3% to $108.36 a barrel by 0828 GMT on Monday, its highest in three weeks, as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stayed limited. “There is only one direction for oil prices to go,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said, referring to the supply squeeze. Reuters
Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing lower Middle East output and a slower recovery in Gulf exports. Analysts led by Daan Struyven wrote that the “economic risks are larger” than their base crude-price case because of high refined-product prices, shortage risks and the scale of the shock. Reuters
BP’s edge, for now, is trading. European majors including BP, Shell and TotalEnergies have larger commodity trading desks than U.S. rivals, and Reuters calculations based on company sources showed those desks made at least $2.5 billion in the first quarter. David Hewitt, senior consultant at Hewitt Energy Perspectives, said BP is “not given to hyperbole,” making the word “exceptional” notable. Reuters
Citi analysts had raised their BP earnings forecast by 20%, expecting first-quarter adjusted net income of $2.6 billion after BP flagged the trading lift. Shell had also pointed to strong oil trading, underlining how European majors have been better placed than Exxon Mobil and Chevron to turn dislocated markets into profit.
Still, the results are unlikely to settle BP’s broader argument with investors. The company is trying to prove that its pullback from parts of its low-carbon strategy and renewed focus on oil and gas can lift returns without leaving it exposed to governance and climate pressure.
That pressure was visible last week. BP shareholders rejected two board-backed resolutions at the annual meeting, including one that would have allowed the company to scrap two earlier resolutions requiring company-specific climate disclosures. Chair Albert Manifold received 81.8% support, below the near-100% tallies directors at large companies often draw, and told investors the board still had “overwhelming support” for the company’s direction. Reuters
Tuesday will also be the first results presentation since Meg O’Neill took over as chief executive on April 1. O’Neill told staff she wanted “clear direction and consistency,” arriving after BP suspended share buybacks to focus on debt reduction and oil-and-gas investment. Reuters
The risk is that the trading windfall proves temporary. If Gulf flows normalise faster than expected, oil prices could ease, and BP would be left with the less flattering part of its update: higher net debt and more cash absorbed by working capital. A sharp reversal in crude would also test whether investors are buying BP’s strategy, or just buying the war premium.
