London, April 27, 2026, 14:01 (BST)
Rio Tinto plc shares were little changed in London on Monday, holding near 7,391p after opening at 7,345p, as investors weighed firmer iron ore output against a widening fuel and logistics risk from the Middle East conflict. AJ Bell data showed the stock up 0.15%, with a session high of 7,432p and a market value of about £120.19 billion.
The timing matters because the cost question is moving fast. Reuters reported Monday that diesel and jet fuel margins have surged since disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow route that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and a large share of fuel exports. That is the sort of pressure that can move quickly from energy markets into mine costs, freight and staff movement.
Iron ore, Rio’s profit engine, is not flashing one clear signal. Reuters, carried by Business Recorder, said iron ore futures struggled for direction on Friday as steady Chinese construction demand was offset by the chance of more supply. The Singapore benchmark May contract was at $106.8 a tonne, up 0.1%, while China’s Dalian September contract rose 0.32% to 787.5 yuan.
Rio Tinto said last week its first-quarter copper-equivalent output rose 9%. Copper equivalent, or CuEq, is a way miners put different commodities into one common measure. Pilbara iron ore production rose 13% from a year earlier to 78.8 million tonnes, while Pilbara sales were up 2% at 72.4 million tonnes. The company kept its 2026 production guidance unchanged.
Chief Executive Simon Trott said “operating excellence” drove the copper-equivalent growth, and added that “the first $650m of annualised benefits is now fully implemented”. He also said the company was still monitoring the Middle East situation, after cyclones hit Pilbara shipments by about 8 million tonnes in the quarter. Rio Tinto
The sharper warning came in the read-through for the second half. “In the second half, we see jet fuel and diesel shortages as the key risk to operations,” Baden Moore, head of resources and energy research at CLSA Australia, told Reuters. Rio said direct impacts on operations had so far been limited and that higher diesel prices had raised costs, though its cost position remained resilient. Reuters
Peers are dealing with the same market, but not the same mix of issues. BHP said last week it had ended a months-long dispute with China Mineral Resources Group, the state iron ore buyer, after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly iron ore output. Reuters said BHP shares rose about 2% after the update, while also noting that Rio had reported higher first-quarter iron ore and copper output.
Fortescue, another big Pilbara producer, reported a 5% rise in third-quarter iron ore shipments, according to the same Reuters report on iron ore markets. That adds to the supply question for Rio: steady Chinese demand helps, but more seaborne tonnes from rivals can cap price gains.
Analysts have not moved as one bloc. MarketScreener data showed several fresh calls on April 22, including Berenberg trimming its price target while keeping a hold rating, RBC cutting its target and estimates, and JPMorgan, Jefferies and Barclays listed with neutral calls. The same page showed a mean consensus of “outperform” from 20 analysts, with an average target price below the last close shown there. MarketScreener
The risk is plain enough. Rio’s first-quarter volumes were stronger, but the company’s statement and analyst comments point to an operating year that may hinge less on ore bodies and more on fuel access, shipping lanes and how long high energy costs stay in the system.
For now, investors appear to be treating the update as good enough, not clean. Rio still has volume growth, copper momentum from Oyu Tolgoi and unchanged guidance. It also has a live cost risk that could turn uglier if diesel or jet fuel shortages tighten later in 2026.
